ChangeWave – Restaurant Sector Improving

by Paul Carton | October 13, 2009 5:22 am

Two just-released ChangeWave consumer surveys show the restaurant industry is showing clear signs of improvement, with Olive Garden (DRI[1]), Red Lobster (DRI[1]), Chipotle (CMG[2]), Maggiano’s (EAT[3]) and Starbucks (SBUX[4]) showing the most momentum. That is after four months of little to no change.

To start, better than one-in-ten respondents (11%) now say they’ll spend more money at restaurants going forward — that’s a 1-pt improved over August.

Another 36% say they’ll be spending less, also 1-pt better than previously.

Other positive signs:

Winning and Losing Restaurant Categories

We next asked respondents to tell us which types of restaurants they’ll be eating at more or less often over the next 90 days. The one category showing improvement since our May survey was Upscale/ Fine Dining Restaurants (Change in Net Difference Score = +4).

And for the second consecutive survey, the category of Fast Food Restaurants (-4) has experienced the largest decline – evidence that consumers are “trading up” when it comes to dining out.

Restaurant Spending by Consumers

Individual Restaurant Chains

Here’s a look at the 4 best positioned and 3 worst positioned restaurant chains in terms of where respondents say they’ll spend more vs. less money over the next 90 days:

Restaurant Chains Over the Next 90 Days

For the second consecutive survey Starbucks (+5) has experienced the biggest improvement of any coffee shop or restaurant surveyed. The coffee company is clearly a momentum winner at this point of the recovery.

Coffee Spending - Change in Net Difference Score

Other Industry Trends – Frequency of Dining Out

A total of 12% say they expect to dine out More Frequently over the next 90 days, compared to the previous 90, and 26% report they’ll dine out Less Frequently. All told, these results are 5-pts less than the previous survey, most likely caused by seasonality factors (i.e., the end of summer vacation).

As a follow-up, we asked those consumers who expect to dine out ‘More Frequently’ over the next 90 days to tell us why, and 26% say it’s because Restaurants are Offering a Better Value (up 8-pts). Another 25% say they have Less Time to Cook at Home (up 5-pts).

Reasons for Dining Out More Frequently

In a positive sign for the overall economy, one-in-ten (10%; up 5-pts) say it’s because they’re Not Trying to Save as Much Money, and 8% (up 3-pts) because they’re Less Concerned About Job Security.

Reasons For Dining Out Less Frequently

As reasons for dining out less, consumers cited Saving More Money (36%; down 4-pts) and Reduced Income (32%; down 5-pts) as the top reasons, but each has declined since our May survey.

We note that Recent Purchase of Big Ticket Item (8%) has increased by 4-pts since May – another positive sign for the overall economy.

Dining Out Less Frequently Next 90 Days

Mike Wrobel co-wrote this article.

  1. DRI:
  2. CMG:
  3. EAT:
  4. SBUX:

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