On Wednesday, technology stocks led the way to a triple-digit gain for the Dow industrials, driving the senior index to close near the high of the day. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq led the other indices with a gain of 1.1%.
The Fed’s Beige Book, the summary of the country’s economic condition, indicated that there had been “modest to moderate” growth in the past month, that residential housing was “largely positive,” and that employment grew at a “tepid pace.”
At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 103 points at 12,909, the S&P 500 rose 9 points to 1,373, and the Nasdaq gained 33 points to close at 2,943. The NYSE traded 726 million shares and the Nasdaq traded 463 million. Advancers led decliners by over 1.5-to-1 on both exchanges.
Wednesday’s 103-point gain broke the intermediate bearish resistance line (red dash down sloping line). The breakout is supported by MACD and stochastic buy signals. The next target for the Dow is the July 3 close at 12,943. Even though the breakout has solid support from the internal indicators, the Dow must break that target in order to confirm it.
The Nasdaq’s advance is not as complete as the Dow’s since it has yet to break its bearish resistance line. But like the Dow, its advance is supported by positive signals from MACD and the stochastic. Adding to the positive picture is its break from the inflection point at 2,900.
The overall picture of the Nasdaq is positive, but not extremely positive. Until the break over the bearish resistance occurs and is confirmed by a close above the July closing high of 2,976, the bullish pattern is not complete.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly called the “fear index,” is much less fearful than several weeks ago when it briefly broke above its 50-day moving average (solid blue line). This contra-indicator, with Wednesday’s close at the lowest level since April 4, supports a bullish view of the stock market.
Conclusion: All technical signs are now bullish, but perhaps what is most bullish is the nature of this week’s breakout. Stocks have been attracting buyers despite a poor economy and dire predictions from analysts and the Fed.
Therefore, a basic market truth mentioned in yesterday’s Daily Market Outlook is worth repeating: There is no stronger signal than when stocks rally in the face of bad news.
With just a small push higher we will confirm that all three trends (near-term, intermediate-term and long-term) are in uptrends.
Today’s Trading Landscape
To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.
For a list of this week’s economic reports due out, click here.