For Caterpillar, It’s All Downhill

by John Lansing | September 27, 2012 8:00 am

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT[1]) is one of the latest big companies to release forward guidance[2] — not only for what is currently going on, but all the way out to 2015. Let’s take a look at the short-term chart to see what’s going on:

As you can see, CAT topped in 2012 around the middle of February and has been in a downtrend ever since. Then, shortly after the Fed announcement, it hit the downtrend line. It remains at the support there, around 78.

It looks like a standard ABC correction, at least on the short-term chart, at wave three or four down. There’s also a little descending triangle action with a downside target in there somewhere between 60 and 70. That may not happen today, of course — but any time you have a pattern that has a flat bottom and a falling downtrend line like this, it typically will zig-zag and then take the path of least resistance: down.

Though we know what to expect until 2015, the recent press release didn’t say anything about 2016 so there’s that to look forward to. We’ll see how CAT and its peers, Cummins (NYSE:CMI[3]), Deere (NYSE:DE[4]) and Joy Global (NYSE: JOY[5]) react to the latest round of warnings coming out of this sector.

As of this writing, John Lansing did not own a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

  1. CAT:
  2. release forward guidance:
  3. CMI:
  4. DE:
  5. JOY:

Source URL:
Short URL: