Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

by Richard Young | October 31, 2012 11:00 am

Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

If you missed the slowdown in FedEx (NYSE:FDX[1]) and UPS (NYSE: UPS[2]) trucks slugging through your neighborhood, the big money crowd has not. My stock price charts on FedEx and UPS are not at all compelling. In the era of Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN[3]), delivery/transportation is everything, and the lousy chart action of Fed Ex and UPS is frightening.

ryir 1112 02 Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

Let’s look at how the Dow Transports are faring versus the Dow Industrials. In the chart below, I outline a pretty ghastly comparison. And don’t just look at the cratering trend arrow. The most recent action has an end-of-the-world look to it.

ryir 1112 03 Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

What about Young Research’s Moving the Goods index? We have used this proprietary index for years as a guide to overall momentum in the economy, and it has a top-notch record. As you can see, Moving the Goods does not yet signal recession, but boy, has all the upside momentum evaporated.

ryir 1112 04 Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

Finally, Young Research’s partial leading economic index is a sensitive gauge of economic momentum that never fails to catch cyclical swings in the economy. As you can see, the picture continues to dim. The raw data shows that our leaders actually peaked before the New Year began. In 2012, there have been three positive monthly readings and five negative monthly readings, including the most recent negative.

ryir 1112 05 Tracking the FedEx/UPS Slowdown Should Scare Investors

Endnotes:
  1. FDX: http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=FDX
  2. UPS: http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=UPS
  3. AMZN: http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=AMZN

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