by Charles Sizemore | April 24, 2013 9:10 am
Earlier this year, I commented that semiconductor titan Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was my favorite tobacco stock. The comparison was tongue-in-cheek, and more so meant to describe the nature of the slow-growth, high-dividend stock.
In the same vein, another industry is starting to show some tobacco-esque signs. Namely, soft drinks — a product which is on the familiar slow road toward “vice” status.
Going back to my previous piece: I’m aware that Intel designs and manufactures microprocessors, not cigarettes. My point was simply that slow-growth (or even no-growth) investments, such as tobacco stocks, can be wildly profitable under the right conditions:
But most importantly, even if all of these other conditions are met, the stock must be cheap. Remember, if this is an industry in decline, you cannot pay top dollar for the stock and expect to have decent returns going forward.
Big Tobacco giants such as Altria (NYSE:MO), Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) and Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) easily pass the first three conditions. All benefit from the moats encircling the tobacco business (it would be all but impossible to start a new cigarette company today), all are financially healthy and all are solid dividend payers and growers.
Yet none is particularly cheap at the moment; all trade at a premium to the S&P 500’s earnings multiple.
Big Tobacco’s rich valuations these days are particularly noteworthy because tobacco is not just any run-or-the-mill no-growth industry. It’s also a vice industry and perhaps, outside of firearms, the biggest of all social pariahs. In many American cities, cigarette smoking is for all intents and purposes illegal. Smoking in indoor public spaces like bars and restaurants is not allowed, and in the most aggressive cases (such as New York City) even smoking in outdoor public parks is prohibited. But even where smoking is less persecuted, it’s not exactly welcome.
And this brings me to the crux of this article.
Princeton professor Harrison Hong and University of British Colombia professor Marcin Kacperczyk published an insightful paper in 2005 titled “The Price of Sin.” The professors showed that social stigmas against investing in vice industries such as tobacco and firearms cause the stocks of companies in these industries to be depressed due to lack of institutional ownership. No college endowment fund, foundation, or pension plan wants to be labeled a “merchant of death.” As a result, vice stocks tend to be priced as perpetual value stocks and thus deliver market-beating returns over time.
So … by this rationale, wouldn’t Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) be vice investments, too?
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg certainly seems to think so. About the only thing he has fought as hard as tobacco is super-sized sodas. His controversial ban on all sugary sodas larger than 20 ounces in NYC was tossed out in court, but he’s not throwing in the towel just yet. His war against Coca-Cola and Pepsi will be a war of attrition.
And Bloomberg is not alone. First Lady Michelle Obama has actively campaigned against soda consumption as part of her anti-child-obesity efforts. Calorie counts started appearing in menus a few years ago, and calls for assorted “fat taxes” have sprung up across various parts of the United States and Europe. Japan — not normally a country associated with an obese population — started measuring the waistlines of its citizens in 2008 and requires diet changes for anyone deemed too fat.
How fat is “too fat”? Try a 33.5-inch waist line for men and 35.4 inches for women. I’m willing to bet that most of my readers would fall outside these bounds given that they are well below the American average.
Anti-tobacco laws did not spring up overnight. It was a gradual process taking place over decades. Smoking rates declined over time, driven more by changing attitudes than changing laws.
Is something similar happening to soft drinks? Indeed, it would appear so. U.S. soda consumption fell in 2012 for the eighth consecutive year. Even more foreboding, consumption per person is at the lowest levels since 1987.
Sales are still strong in emerging markets … for now. But rising emerging-market incomes will only provide a temporary boost, if tobacco is any indication. As incomes rise, so does health awareness.
But does any of this actually matter to Coca-Cola and PepsiCo shareholders?
Both KO and PEP meet my first three criteria for slow-growth companies. Both have enormous moats due to their branding power and global distribution. (If you’re the investor of a new soft drink, you shouldn’t waste your time; Coke and Pepsi will bury you.) Both companies are financially healthy, and both have long histories of strong dividend growth. On the dividend front, both Coke and Pepsi are proud members of the Dividend Achievers Index and major holdings of my favorite ETF: the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE:VIG).
But what about price?
KO and PEP have both seen price/earnings multiple contraction since the go-go days of the 1990s; for that matter, so has the entire U.S. stock market. Yet both sport current multiples well above the market average of 17, making them too expensive to be “tobacco stocks.” (Of course, tobacco stocks are too expensive to be “tobacco stocks” too, so at least they have something in common.)
Pricing here is complicated. Coca-Cola has what is by most accounts the most valuable brand in the world, and PepsiCo’s brands are also quite valuable. It is the value of these brands that allows the stocks to trade at premiums to the market, even while their core products are seeing weak demand. But then, 20 years ago, I might have said the exact same thing about the branding power of the Marlboro Man. Altria still has branding power relative to its Big Tobacco rivals, but this has to be viewed within the context of a shrinking industry.
In other words, I don’t expect Coca-Cola’s brand, as iconic as it is, to justify a premium valuation forever.
It would appear that Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are slowly transitioning into vice stocks, though they are not quite there yet based on valuation. Both stocks pay solid dividends and have a history of growing their dividends. But at current prices, I wouldn’t expect either to outperform the market by a wide margin.
And on a final note, I’m going to be a proper Texan by enjoying a Dr. Pepper with my lunch.
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA, is the chief investment officer of the investment firm Sizemore Capital Management. As of this writing, Sizemore Capital was long VIG. Click here to receive his FREE 8-part investing series that will not only show you which sectors will soar but also which stocks will deliver the highest returns. The series starts November 5 and includes a FREE copy of his 2014 Macro Trend Profit Report.
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