On Feb. 21, I said that risk/reward at the time was unfavorable for those looking to chase gold lower. Since then, gold has indeed refused to go lower … and even bounced a little higher.
Some five weeks later, I am looking at gold once again, this time in the greater context as it relates to near-term movements in the equity markets.
To be precise, I am considering buying the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) for a few percent if and when equity prices decide to take a little breather and correct in price to the downside for more than a few ticks. (Silver, on the other hand, I find extremely difficult to like for upside at this juncture — at least not until more bullish price action shines through.)
For a little perspective, let us look at a longer-term chart of gold via the SPDR Gold Shares:
The massive run-up in gold peaked with a vertical leap in September 2011 and formed a series of lower highs ever since. What continues to be missing is a lower low, which would confirm a change of trend. Important to understand for these longer trends is that tops are not points, but rather processes that first lead to sideways movements before a more meaningful downtrend can kick in. A lower low would be confirmed on a solid break below $148 on GLD. Thus, I remain bearish on gold over the medium- and longer-term.
To those attracted to perma-bullishness on the flavor/asset of the month, let this longer-term chart of gold also be a reminder that gravity ultimately wins out. Those who didn’t learn from gold surely must have gotten a hint from the latest example: the big selloff in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) since last autumn.
Near-term, however, I continue to see upside for gold. While longer-term correlations between stocks and gold are floppy, the short-term inverse correlations during price corrections in stocks is remarkably reliant. Hence my interest in picking up some gold via the SPDR Gold Shares should a correction in stocks be confirmed by price action.
On the closer-up chart of GLD, the level I am watching is $156.75. A daily close above there would move this ETF past its February highs and likely also break the downtrend in place since last October.
Given near-term inverse correlations between stocks and gold, a break above said level is likely to occur on the back of initial price weakness in equities.
Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader. Sign up for his free weekly newsletter here.