Follow the Smart Money’s Lead on Any Correction

by Sam Collins | August 13, 2013 2:47 am

On Monday, technology stocks and some small caps bounced, but overall trading was mixed. And precious metals rallied following rumblings of lower reserve requirements to small- and mid-sized banks.

With about 90% of the S&P 500’s companies reporting earnings, the group is on track for a gain of 2.1% for Q2. FactSet estimates that this is a slowdown from the 3.4% reported in Q1.

Gains by BlackBerry (BBRY[1]) and Apple (AAPL[2]) helped the technology sector lead and also boosted the Nasdaq 0.27% for the day.

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 6 points at 15,420, the S&P 500 fell 2 points to 1,689, and the Nasdaq was up 10 points at 3,670. On the NYSE, advancers slightly outpaced decliners, but on the Nasdaq, advancers were ahead by 1.3-to-1.

 Nasdaq Chart
Click to Enlarge

Chart Key[3]

The small- and mid-cap stocks have been leading a lethargic move higher. Despite marginal advances, the Nasdaq received a MACD sell signal Monday. 

Support is initially at the index’s 20-day moving average at 3,630, and then there is a band of support at 3,575 to 3,630. Major support is at its 50-day moving average at 3,520 and the May closing high at 3,523.

RUT Chart
Click to Enlarge

The Russell 2000 small-cap index closed above its 20-day moving average Monday, but is still under pressure from a weak sell signal from MACD. MACD is turning up and could cause an attack on the high at 1,063. Support is first at 1,042, then the 50-day moving average at 1,014, and finally at 1,000.

Conclusion: With over 90% of the S&P stocks reporting, the flow of news moves back to the Fed and comments from its regional presidents. With that in mind, I suggest a cautious approach. But any correction should be used as a buying opportunity, since recent comments from the large institutional houses indicate that they are ready to pounce on weakness.

Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here[4].

For a list of this week’s economic reports due out, click here[5].

Endnotes:
  1. BBRY: http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=BBRY
  2. AAPL: http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/investplace/quote?Symbol=AAPL
  3. [Image]: http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/chart-key.gif
  4. click here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ecal?c=US
  5. click here: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

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