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Bear of the Day: Microsoft Trying to Make Up Lost Ground

Slower growth, weak earnings and a CEO change spell trouble


Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has fallen out of favor with the analysts after missing the earnings estimate last quarter, announcing that longtime CEO Steve Ballmer was retiring, and then entering into a $7.2 billion deal with Nokia. The tech giant has fallen to a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Microsoft makes computer software, provides technology services and also makes devices such as the Microsoft Surface and the XBox game console.

Big Miss in the Fiscal Fourth Quarter

Microsoft’s recent troubles began over the summer. On July 18, Microsoft reported its fiscal fourth quarter and missed the Zacks Consensus by 15 cents or 20%. Earnings were just 59 cents compared to the Zacks Consensus of $0.74.

The company said that its results were impacted by the decline in the PC market. It continued to see strong demand for the enterprise and cloud offerings.

Fiscal 2014 Earnings Estimates Cut

With the disappointing earnings report, analysts cut fiscal 2014 estimates. 17 of 21 estimates moved lower in the last 60 days. The Zacks Consensus plunged to $2.76 from $3.08 just 90 days before.

That’s just earnings growth of 5%.

Ballmer to Retire

Then, on Aug 23, Microsoft announced that long time CEO Steve Ballmer would retire within the next 12 months. The search is on for his successor.

CEO searches always create a level of uncertainty with any company, especially one where there hasn’t been new leadership quite some time.

Microsoft to Acquire Mobile Phone Business

On Sep 3, Microsoft announced it was acquiring Nokia’s (NOK) mobile phone business for $7.2 billion in cash. Relative to the company’s cash hoard, this was a “small” acquisition as it had $77 billion available at the end of fiscal 2013.

The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2014. Some analysts weren’t enamoured with the deal.3 estimates were cut again following the announcement of the deal. The analysts appear to be in agreement on one thing: earnings are going to fall in fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015.

New York “Event” on September 23

The next source of news is expected on September 23 in New York City. Microsoft has invited journalists to an “event”.

Usually these events are announcements of new products. Some in the media have theorized that it may be new Surface tablets, even though the Surface hasn’t lived up to expectations.

Stay tuned for that.

Shares are Volatile

Shares sold off on the earnings miss and have been on a see-saw ever since with every new press release.

But they’re holding up surprisingly well given the recent news.

Microsoft trades with a forward P/E of just 11.5 so it’s not very expensive. But with just single digit earnings growth and falling earnings estimates, it’s short term prospects look bleak.

If you’re looking to invest in Big Tech, you might want to consider Apple (AAPL) instead. It’s also cheap, with a forward P/E of just 12.9, but it is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Tracey Ryniec is the Value Stock Strategist for Zacks.com. She is also the Editor of the Turnaround Trader and Value Investor services. You can follow her on twitter at @TraceyRyniec.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, http://investorplace.com/2013/09/bear-of-the-day-microsoft-msft-nok/.

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