by Serge Berger | March 25, 2014 8:05 am
When I last discussed Apple (AAPL) on March 13, I highlighted the $540 level as an important area that AAPL stock must break through for the bulls to have a better chance of success. Well, AAPL stock made a good attempt into this key level once again on Monday — let’s revisit the charts.
On Monday it was announced that Apple and Comcast (CMCSA) are in discussion about a service that would allow users to watch live TV and receive on-demand TV programming, all using a set-top box made from Apple. The service may also allow users to receive maximized download speeds. Considering how long speculations about an Apple TV set have been circulating, this was welcome news … even if it wasn’t an announcement of an Apple television. This seems is a strategic move on the part of Apple to make closer friends still with the “old” cable companies, which over time could allow them to leverage more of their services.
Also on Monday we got more rumors about Apple planning a streaming music service that would be in direct competition with Spotify and other services.
Because concrete product news has been somewhat lacking for Apple as of late, traders and investors applauded the news and pushed AAPL stock higher by 1.19% on Monday. The bulls can’t take a victory lap just yet — more follow-through buying is needed to confirm a breakout — but Monday’s session is a sign of marginally more positive price action.
As I noted on March 13, AAPL stock is finding it difficult to find any meaningful upside momentum, as a series of failed rally attempts over the past few months seems to have dampened traders’ interest in the stock. But momentum stocks are cyclical — that is they come and go in the public’s favor — and just because AAPL is no longer moving in 5% clips per day doesn’t mean it will never again become interesting. We need to be patient … patience is largely the key to success.
AAPL stock currently still trades close to a cross of its yellow 50- and blue 100-day moving averages, something we haven’t seen since July of last year. Even though the stock hasn’t yet overcome near-term resistance at $540 on a daily closing basis, Monday’s move led to a daily close above the December 2013 black diagonal downtrend and followed last Friday’s intraday rally off the lows.
I would still like to see AAPL move a little higher and register a daily close above $540, but the stock is in better position here to now begin moving toward $560 and possibly $580. If Monday’s move proves to have been just another fakeout and the stock gives up those gains in coming days, then more patience is needed for the bulls.
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Download Serge’s trading plan in the Essence of Swing Trading e-book here. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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