ESPN’s Nate Silver went on Sportscenter this morning and revealed his favorites for the Final Four.
- Louisville (#4 seed, Midwest region)
- Florida (#1 seed, South region)
- Arizona (#1 seed, West region)
- Michigan State (#4 seed, East region)
These are the favorites in each region according to Silver’s statistical model.
Florida and Arizona have been the best two teams in the country all year, so there’s no surprise there. But the other two picks are upsets, at least according to the seeds.
Louisville, despite being a #4 seed, is beloved by the advanced stats community. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings — the most respected advanced metric in college basketball — have Louisville as the #2 team in the country.
It’s pretty surprising that Michigan State is Silver’s favorite in the East. They’re only ranked 10th in Pomeroy’s ratings, but they’re finally fully healthy after a horribly unlucky run of injuries in the middle of the season. Silver’s model must factor in health.