Apple (AAPL) stock is pushing $100 a share and up against a split-adjusted all-time high.
And based on the history of past Apple smartphone launches, when the much-anticipated iPhone 6 hits, it could push AAPL stock even higher.
A report from Lawrence Lewitinn of Yahoo Finance‘s Talking Numbers indicates that, on average, Apple stock rises 23% in the wake of a new iPhone launch. Longer term, Lewitinn estimates AAPL stock rises 25% in the 12 months after a launch.
Of course, the details of this report show that there are no guarantees of smooth sailing for Apple after a new iPhone debuts.
Here’s the data on the previous iPhone launches:
As you can see, there have been periods when AAPL stock performed rather poorly in both the short and long term. And most recently, the performance of Apple in its iPhone 5 and iPhone 5S launch periods were very disappointing — which could indicate the trend has broken down.
However, the bulls might suggest that the iPhone 5C and 5S launch period — which also, by the way, debuted two new iPads — was a troublesome time with a clogged supply chain. Should Apple learn from its past mistakes and stay simple with its upgrade cycle, as it had in the past, we could return to the pop in AAPL stock that investors had previously been used to.
Bearish investors, however, would contend that Apple stock is already overbought at these levels and that the movement we previously saw in AAPL is a thing of the past. After all, the upgrade cycle was a powerful thing when there were lines around the block at Apple stores … but now that Samsung (SSNLF) and Google (GOOG) Android devices have just as much sex appeal as the iPhone and growth has slowed in the U.S., what’s all the fuss about?
The rumors of a larger-screened iPhone 6 have yet to be confirmed by Apple. And frankly, Apple is even playing coy with the idea of a new iPhone release at all — simply telling the world that there’s a “media event” on Sept. 6 without giving any details.
But you can bet that AAPL stock is going to move big on this highly anticipated release, because the tech giant has a lot riding on a new iPhone right now.
Whether Apple stock moves up or down, however, remains to be seen.
Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com and the author of The Frugal Investor’s Guide to Finding Great Stocks. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Write him at firstname.lastname@example.org or follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP.