However, the metals rebounded 10% by March 2014, and just when everyone got aboard that rally and turned bullish, the metals fell back to test their three-year lows.
A similar bounce in the metals just occurred.
Is this the one to finally get all bullish on?
What Drives Precious Metals?
Most investors have heard of the saying, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful,” and the metals market has recently been a perfect example of this in action.
Back in December, the precious metals declines caused many long-time bulls to throw in the towel. Check out some of these headlines from the beginning of this year capturing the prevailing sentiment:
- “Moody’s Lowers Downside Targets to $900 on Gold and $15 on Silver”
- “Gold Prices Remain a Sell for Two Reasons”
- “The Gold Rush is Over and Gold Bugs Know It”
Compare the above stories to our Dec. 27 article, “Will Extreme Bearish Sentiment Lift Gold?” and see why our contrarian take on the markets has helped us stay ahead of the precious metals price moves. We were calling for a sentiment-driven turning point in their prices when most others were calling for continued weakness.
Followers of our research know that, in late December, we were getting our subscribers long the metals as sentiment had indeed reached an extreme on the bearish side. The precious metals then rallied 10%-plus as the leveraged (NUGT) and metal mining ETFs (GDX, GDXJ) rallied well over 30%. (FYI, during the final week of December 2013 — just as hatred for gold assets peaked — we bought the GDX Jan 2014 20 call options at around $140, and via intraday trade alerts on Jan. 2 and 9 we sold the position for a blended two-week gain of 27%. It was a great trade!)
Still, headline reading isn’t the only way to identify sentiment extremes.
There are also more objective ways to measure gold (IAU) and silver sentiment, which we captured and outlined as part of our analysis for our subscribers in the chart below. Speculators, who typically heed the media’s take on the markets, usually become the most bullish at exactly the wrong time.
Similarly, speculators also become the most bearish (ZSL) at exactly the wrong time.
Check out the following chart, which we included in our Dec. 21 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, that supported our thesis of getting long the metals.
I can’t tell you all the details about the current state of the metals market sentiment because that is reserved for our subscribers, but I can tell you that we are now at another major sentiment extreme as we position to take advantage of the next big move.
Is it a bullish extreme or a bearish one? I know which way we are placing our bets.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses sentiment extremes combined with technical and fundamental analysis to help identify the prevailing trends in the markets. Readers receive actionable investment ideas and our biggest winner so far this year is a 188%-plus timestamped trade from our June 4 Weekly Picks.
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