Big Pharma Might Finally Be Over the Alzheimer’s Hump

Advertisement

Considering Alzheimer’s disease currently affects 5.2 million Americans and a comparable proportion of the global population, one would expect big pharma companies to make finding a treatment a top priority.

Big Pharma Might Finally Be Over the Alzheimer's Hump

Source: iStockphoto

In reality, however, the major names in pharmaceuticals aren’t pressing the matter, opting to devote most of their resources to arenas like cancer, hepatitis, and diabetes.

It’s not difficult to understand why big pharma is gun-shy when it comes to Alzheimer’s disease. Between 2002 and 2012, clinical trials of Alzheimer’s drugs ultimately failed more than 99% of the time. With the odds stacked against a successful solution, why burn R&D dollars on pharmaceuticals that are statistically likely to be a lost cause?

But nothing lasts forever. The last couple of years have seen great strides not just in the healthcare industry’s understanding of Alzheimer’s disease, but great strides in the way pharmaceuticals are made.

Is the Alzheimer’s landscape about to change? And if so … what big pharma companies will be wielding the shovels?

Alzheimer’s Disease: Big, But Not Easy

The estimated market size for Alzheimer’s treatments varies widely from one observer to the next, and largely depends on how the disease is defined.

Neurodyn Inc. says it’s worth $4.2 billion per year. BioPortfolio reports the market size should grow from $3.6 billion in 2012 to $3.8 billion in 2019. BCC Research believes the Alzheimer’s market is going to be worth $9.5 billion in 2017, but that’s actually down from the $10.2 billion it says was spent on Alzheimer’s in 2012. (Don’t get the wrong idea — the need for treatments isn’t falling. Some of the pharmaceuticals used to treat the disease will simply be losing their patent expiration.)

That last little detail is the result of another grim detail regarding Alzheimer’s disease: No new drug-based treatments have been approved in more than a decade.

It’s not from a lack of trying from big pharma, mind you. Eli Lilly (LLY) tried to bring solanezumab to the market, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pfizer (PFE) worked to develop bapineuzumab. Both drugs failed in Phase 3 testing, along with a few other companies’ AD drugs.

Point being, the market has thus far been a tough nut to crack. And that’s despite the fact that most of the current so-called therapies for Alzheimer’s disease only treat its symptoms without actually slowing down the condition’s progression. And even the treatment of symptoms is hit-and-miss.

If the right drug were to come along though, some believe the Alzheimer’s market could expand to $20 billion on an annual basis.

Finally, Breakthroughs?

While the recent R&D results have been discouraging, a handful of projects based on new information about the disease might hold the keys for the next generation of Alzheimer’s drugs … pharmaceuticals that could actually be approved.

One of these more compelling possibilities is AZD3293 — which is now being jointly developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) and Eli Lilly thanks to a deal announced last week — and MK-8931 from Merck (MRK).

AZD3293 and MK8931 are in a relatively new category of experimental Alzheimer’s pharmaceuticals called BACE inhibitors. BACE (beta secretase) inhibitors are designed to fight the amyloid beta plaque that is thought by most to be the root cause of Alzheimer’s disease.

Many of the recently failed AD drugs took aim at the amyloid beta plaque as well, but only after it had materialized. BACE inhibitors are designed to prevent its formation in the first place. Obviously this would require determining whether a particular individual is beginning to or is likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease, though spotting the warning signs isn’t too difficult now.

Of course, the benefit of BACE inhibitors will ultimately depend on whether or not a buildup of amyloid beta plaque is the true cause of Alzheimer’s disease. There are those that believe a buildup of this plaque is a symptom of the true cause of Alzheimer’s disease rather than the cause of the disease itself.

It’s a minority opinion to be sure, and one the big pharma names clearly disagree with. It’s still an idea worth entertaining, though.

TauRx Therapeutics Ltd is one of a handful of fringe biotech companies entertaining the idea, with an actual clinical trial. The company’s researchers believe a tau protein is the actual cause of Alzheimer’s disease — not amyloid beta plaque. The theory is, if tau clumps together and doesn’t keep the brain’s nutrient paths “open,” brain cells weaken and/or die. By reducing the clumping of this tau protein, TauRx might be able to do what no other organization has been able to.

Bottom Line

While big pharma is still many years away from what could be considered anything close to a “cure” for Alzheimer’s disease, a decade of complete and utter failures of AD drugs seems to be coming to a close. The next generation of these drugs looks promising enough to win approval.

Perhaps even more important, determining the true cause of Alzheimer’s disease is finally within reach. That cause might well end up being amyloid beta plaque. It might not, though, and one of the alternative R&D paths could have the potential to leap forward.

Whatever the case, the investing in Alzheimer’s disease is sure to bear more fruit over the coming 10 years than it did for the past 10.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/09/alzheimers-disease-big-pharmaceuticals/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC