DG: Cautiously Add Dollar General to Your Portfolio

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Dollar General Corp. (DG) stock rose to an all-time high after it released its third-quarter earnings yesterday. With a possible merger with Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (FDO) also in the works, is now a good time to buy DG stock?

Dollar General – Company Profile

dollar general, family dollarDollar General was founded 75 years ago and is based in the U.S. The discount retailer’s merchandise includes everything from perishable items like milk and eggs, to home cleaning supplies, toys and over-the counter medicines.

Dollar General operates 11,500 stores in 40 states, but it looks like the Dollar General chain is about to get a lot bigger. In September, Dollar General offered $80 per share directly to Family Dollar shareholders in hopes of a merger. Dollar General’s $9.1 billion offer to Family Dollar also includes disposing of more than Dollar General 1,500 stores and paying a reverse break-up fee of $500 million.

Dollar General is currently in the process of working out antitrust issues with the Federal Trade Commission, but if this deal does go through it would secure its status as the leading discount retailer in the U.S.

Dollar General – Earnings Rundown

Yesterday, Dollar General revealed that it missed third-quarter consensus estimates. The discount retailer reported net income of $236.32 million, or 78 cents per share and an adjusted net income of 79 cents per share. Analysts’ expected 80 cents per share for the quarter. So, Dollar General posted a 1.3% earnings miss.

Net sales increased 7.8% year-over-year to $4.38 billion; this also missed analysts’ estimates of $4.76 billion in revenues. Meanwhile, same-store sales climbed 2.8%, marking Dollar General’s 27th consecutive quarter of same-store sales growth. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2014, Dollar General expects sales growth of 8%. Same-store sales for 2014 are estimated to be a bit below the previous guidance range of 3% to 3.5%, while full-year earnings is expected to be $3.50 per share.

Dollar General – Current Ratings

Over the past three months, DG stock has remained in “hold” territory but just last week was upgraded to a “buy” rating, which can be attributed to DG stock’s solid buying pressure. Dollar General earns a “B” for its Quantitative Grade. DG stock’s fundamentals are not as strong, but there are bright spots.

DG earns an “A” for return on equity and a “B” for cash flow. Dollar General’s other rankings could use some improvement. Earnings surprises earns a “D” while all other metrics earn mediocre “Cs” (sales growth, operating margin growth, earnings growth, earnings momentum and analyst earnings revisions). Overall, Dollar General earns a “C” for its Fundmental Grade. So, if you buy DG stock, keep a close watch on its fundameantals.

As of this posting, Dec. 5, I consider DG a “B-rated (cautious) buy.”

Louis Navellier is a renowned growth investor. He is the editor of five investing newsletters: Blue Chip GrowthEmerging GrowthUltimate GrowthFamily Trust and Platinum Growth. His most popular service, Blue Chip Growth, has a track record of beating the market 3:1 over the last 14 years. He uses a combination of quantitative and fundamental analysis to identify market-beating stocks. Mr. Navellier has made his proven formula accessible to investors via his free, online stock rating tool, PortfolioGrader.com. Louis Navellier may hold some of the aforementioned securities in one or more of his newsletters.


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