Why FireEye Inc (FEYE) Stock Keeps Getting Uglier

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Whatever FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE) is doing at the moment isn’t working. We predicted just this week that FireEye stock would be one of a group to hit an all-time low this year. Indeed, Thursday’s price of $10.44 is FEYE stock’s lowest ever. The company isn’t even close to being profitable.

Why FireEye Inc (FEYE) Stock Keeps Getting Uglier

Billings (revenue less changes in deferred revenue) turned negative in the second half of 2016, including a drop of 14% in Q4. In what should be a decent, if not outright positive, environment for cybersecurity stocks, FireEye stock looks like a mess.

Change is necessary. But the problem for the company — and FEYE stock — is that there aren’t a lot of great options. And those that are available, the company seems uninterested in taking. That makes FireEye a tough choice at the moment, even at all-time lows.

A Sale of FireEye Stock

The most obvious decision would be to simply sell FEYE. Acquisitions rumors have swirled the company since its 2013 IPO, if not before. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) reportedly have shown interest. Last month, Reuters reported that Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ:SYMC) was willing to offer $16 per share for FireEye stock.

That’s a more than a 50% premium to the current FireEye stock price. But FEYE (again, according to reports) declined the offer. And while it’s good news that an offer was made, the decline of the offer highlights a current problem with investing in FEYE stock based on M&A. The board has to agree to a sale.

This is a bigger problem than it appears, and it’s one reason I’ve been skeptical about a sale of FireEye stock for some time. It’s difficult for a CEO and a board to accept a substantial discount from previous share prices. It’s much less of an ego hit to try and turn the business around. Bear in mind that FEYE stock was at $90 in early 2014. It was at $50 less than two years ago. It’s very difficult for a company to accept $16 per share after reaching those levels. Even if that $16 offer is a 40% to 50% premium for current shareholders.

The Benefits of Cost-Cutting for FEYE

Regardless of its long-term strategy, it would help, seemingly, if FireEye turned profitable. That would help the near-term valuation for FEYE stock; it would also raise interest from potential acquirers. One way to do that is to change the focus from “growth at all costs” to a focus on those costs. Not every stock can be Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and have investors accept that current investments will pay off in the future.

Here we run into another problem: FireEye already has tried this strategy. It certainly doesn’t look like it worked. Sales and marketing spend declined 38% in the fourth quarter. R&D was cut by one-quarter, and G&A 20%. Yet FEYE remained unprofitable. Billings dropped 14% and FireEye stock tanked.

Heading into 2017, there are admittedly some incremental benefits from last year’s restructuring. Operating expenses should decline again year-over-year as the company realizes a full year of expenses at the new run rate. But that is not enough — not even on a non-GAAP basis. And that figure includes nearly $200 million in stock issuance in 2016 alone — over 10% of the market capitalization of FireEye stock. That figure should come down as well, but not enough. Cost-cutting alone won’t do the trick for FiEYE.

FEYE Stock Needs a Turnaround

So we’re at option three: a turnaround. And those are often difficult, particularly in tech, and particularly for cybersecurity stocks. SYMC was dead money for four years until a recent run. Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW) has stalled out, in terms of both growth and its stock price. While the cybersecurity space as a whole seems to be growing, competition is increasing at the same time.

Investors in FireEye stock now are asking the company to execute a turnaround in that space, with a slashed sales force and morale at a low. Turnover appears to be increasing as well, according to analyst reports. That’s not uncommon in the tech space, where options are a major part of compensation and a collapsing share price leads employees to look for greener pastures.

It’s a lot to expect from FEYE at this point. And it begs the question as to why you should buy FireEye now. FEYE stock is still falling. The company itself doesn’t expect to return to even billings growth until the second half of the year. Given its repeated errors in forecasting its own business, even those projections must be taken with a grain of salt.

The broader point here is that FireEye doesn’t seem to have a good option … at least one that it’s willing to take. And until that changes, investors would be advised to stay away from FEYE stock.

As of this writing, Vince Martin did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

After spending time at a retail brokerage, Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/03/fireeye-inc-feye-stock-keeps-getting-uglier/.

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