Put two traders in a room, and one might scream to sell while the other puts in orders to buy. So who’s right? Well, they both could be—depending on the indicators they’re looking at and the kind of trading you want to do.
We’ve rounded up our InvestorPlace advisors to give you their read of the market. Let’s get to the analysis:
John Jagerson and Wade Hansen, Slingshot Trader
The situation in Europe is a little scary, but we aren’t ready to forecast a bear market yet. If anything, a small correction may provide very attractive new bullish entries in the short term. It is a situation that deserves to be watched cautiously but at this point it hasn’t led to much more than a small consolidation among the stable indexes. We will continue to look for a mix of bearish and bullish positions with an emphasis on companies that are likely to benefit (or suffer) the most from changes in the eurozone.
Jon Markman, Trader’s Advantage and CounterPoint Options
Don’t get me wrong: I’m not looking for a spine-tingling decline, or a wipe-out, or anything of the sort. I’m just saying that there is likely to be an emotional reset that catches a lot of people by surprise, but it isn’t likely to be sudden – more of a slow, muted hiss, like air escaping from a bicycle tire while it sits in the garage. This mess in the eurozone certainly has the capacity to deflate the market like that. I see a lot of potential shorts but still want to witness more than just spurts of selling before heading into a style of trading that has really blown a lot of traders up this year.
John Lansing, Parabolic Options, Trending123 and Power Trading at the Open
We’re told, “Don’t worry about the currencies. Don’t worry about Cyprus. Don’t worry about the news. Don’t worry about Italy, Spain or Austria. You name the country, don’t worry about it if it doesn’t have to do with the United States. Don’t worry about Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Don’t worry about bad earnings with FedEx (NYSE:FDX). Don’t worry, don’t worry, don’t worry, don’t worry.”
If everything is a “don’t worry,” when is it actually time to start worrying? When bellwethers like FDX and United States Steel (NYSE:X) aren’t doing so hot, it’s smarter to listen than to tune out the warning.
Ken Trester, Maximum Options
Our indicators are giving bullish readings, unchanged from last week. As we mentioned might happen last week, the indexes have fallen into a “pause to refresh” trading pattern. Hopefully it will be similar to what we saw in February, when stocks traded sideways for several weeks, then moved sharply higher into March. As we are again heading into the first week of a new month, which is generally a bullish calendar period, perhaps that kind of move will take place again.
But even if a sell-off takes place instead, it should not knock the indexes out of their current bullish trends, which will remain intact as long as the Dow stays above 14,120, the S&P 500 above 1525, and the Nasdaq above 3190. Those numbers represent the index’s respective 50-day moving averages. The averages have been moving steadily higher along with the indexes, and they can be used as stop-losses not only for the general market trend but also by traders for their stock and mutual fund holdings.