From Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Vincent Reinhart (via Business Insider):
- A 15 basis point drag on fourth-quarter real GDP growth, at an annual rate, for every week of shutdown as furloughed workers do not put in usual hours.
- Most data releases delayed, including the employment situation for September that was scheduled for release on Friday.
- The quality of some official data to degrade as the shutdown lengthens because workers will not be in the field to collect the raw information.
- Treasury payments to be processed, including principal and interest, as its fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve, remains open for business.
Reinhard estimates the shutdown to last no more than a week.