China Shadow Banking Crisis Could Dwarf Subprime Meltdown or Greek Debt Debacle

Oct 25, 2011, 3:05 pm EDT

China is taking some knocks lately over fears that a “hard landing” is in the cards for this booming emerging market. Admittedly, it all sounds a little overblown as China’s industrial output surged 13.8% in September over 2010 numbers — hardly indicative of an economic crisis. And although auto sales in China are lagging, they still are growing in what now is the largest vehicle market in the world after American car buying slowed to a crawl during the recession. And, of course, Macau casino stocks are booming as disposable income among wealthy Chinese continues to be in ample supply.

But those who watch manufacturing and consumer trends in China are buying into the head-fake. The fact is almost all production and consumption trends in this nation are subject to massive risks of Chinese banking and lending — a so-called “shadow banking” system that is unregulated, corrupt and wide-reaching in this communist nation.

Consider this: According to a study issued by the People’s Bank of China in 2010, non-banking-sector lending has expanded to anywhere between $1 trillion and $10 trillion — as much as 40% of the total lending activities of China’s economy. These loans come with exorbitant interest rates, ranging from 14% to as much as 70%. Read 

Obamacare Faces a Supreme Challenge

Oct 25, 2011, 1:17 pm EDT

One of the GOP’s most important issues for the 2012 presidential election is destined for a date with the Supreme Court. The U.S. Department of Justice made a surprise decision a few weeks ago to ask the high court to hear a case regarding President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. “Obamacare”) during its current term.

Four different lawsuits currently are in line for possible Supreme Court review. Although there are several types of challenges and possible outcomes, the most important and likely to be ruled upon is the “individual mandate” aspect of the law. This provision of the law requires almost all Americans to purchase health insurance. It is the logical and fiscal base of the reset of the legislation. If the mandate is struck down, much, if not all, of the rest of the law would be costly to implement. A decision of some kind most likely will come down before the 2012 presidential election.

Republican presidential candidates have been united in opposing the health care reform bill and demanding its full repeal. They have two basic arguments. First, they claim the bill is unconstitutional because Congress does not have the express power to require individuals to buy a product. Second, they assert the cost of implementing the law and the uncertainty of how it actually works is preventing firms from hiring. It appears the Supreme Court will weigh in on the first argument and, depending on its ruling, we might get to see whether the second has any real merit. Read 

Fly on the Wall at the Fed — What They’re Thinking

Oct 25, 2011, 6:00 am EDT
Fly on the Wall at the Fed — What They’re Thinking

One of the most important players in any market is the Federal Reserve. It controls the amount and cost of money in the system, so it naturally has to be at the center of our attention at all times.

That’s what makes the release of its meeting notes so fascinating, if you have the slightest bit of policy wonk in you at all. It’s like putting your ear to the door and hearing (albeit three weeks after policies are announced) what the grownups are talking about.

BMO Financial senior economist Michael Gregory always does a nice job analyzing Fed minutes. His interpretation of the October notes is that the Fed, at its Nov. 2 meeting, is not likely to embark on another round of quantitative easing, if only “to allow some time for the past two actions to percolate.” But he thinks more easing is inevitable, which ultimately is going to be a plus for stocks — possibly from lower levels. Read 

13 Stocks That Will Rebuild Libya

Oct 24, 2011, 1:21 pm EDT

Libya will be a multibillion-dollar payday for U.S. stocks  if the political situation stabilizes itself. And stocks like Exxon (NYSE:XOM), General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) will be first in line to benefit from the rebuilding.

Thanks to more than four decades of misrule by the late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, the North African nation is a mess. Though it boasts Africa’s largest proven reserves of oil, the petroleum sector remains in dire need of investment. Libya’s National Oil Company had planned to double production to 3 million barrels per day by 2012, a goal that became unrealistic as foreign oil companies fled during the civil war. Libyan light, sweet crude is of high quality and easy for oil companies to refine and thus in very high demand.

Gadhafi squandered billions in Libya’s oil wealth for more than four decades — the country’s unemployment rate is about 30%, and according to the CIA World FactBook, one-third of Libyans live at or below the national poverty line. But thanks to a revolution, the economy could provide opportunity to the region. Read 

Trump, CEOs Show Laughably Plebian Sides to Occupy Wall Street

Oct 21, 2011, 10:41 am EDT

With friends like Donald Trump and Vikram Pandit, does Occupy Wall Street need enemies?

Both The Donald and the Citigroup (NYSE:C) CEO recently have said that they sympathized with the views of the Occupy Wall Street movement — bizarre statements considering Trump and Pandit are examples of the corporate greed that has infuriated the masses.

Take Trump. There is no greater living symbol of the excesses of capitalism. For Pete’s sake, the man sells his own branded water and the Donald J. Trump Signature collection of apparel! Never mind the ease with which he navigates bankruptcy (his companies or properties have filed for bankruptcy four times). No, Trump decided that he could speak for the common man. Read 

3 Businesses Hit Hard by Stamp Hike

Oct 20, 2011, 12:03 pm EDT
3 Businesses Hit Hard by Stamp Hike

There’s a lot of fuss about United States Postal Service profitability (or lack thereof) these days. Ideas to streamline the USPS include closing post offices in rural locations, eliminating Saturday mail delivery and other cutbacks.

But cuts aren’t the only way to bridge the budget gap at the USPS. To create more revenue, U.S. postage rates are about to go up — again!

Starting Jan. 22, the price of a first-class stamp will go up a penny, from 44 cents to 45 cents. Postcard stamps will jump more than 10%, from 29 cents to 32 cents. Read 

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