How to Trade the Impending Obama Victory

by Traders Reserve | September 27, 2012 10:09 am

I have written here before that objective individuals — there are some of us left — see an Obama victory in November. Only diehard Republicans and paid consultants can see it otherwise. And what is becoming clear is not only will the margin of victory be quite large, he is now pulling Democrats along in key Senate races.

Of course, the trading crowd on Wall Street has never thought through the real potential impact of a Romney or an Obama victory. Many see a Romney victory as leading to lower taxes and the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. If Obama quit the race tomorrow, this will not happen.

The Bush tax cuts for the highest earners are gone forever and the ACA is here forever. Why? If the Republicans took the Senate (they will not, they could end up losing a seat) and Romney won all 52 states (I make this joke in honor of the math he is using to discuss the feasibility of his proposed tax cuts and his electoral chances) the Democrats would still have more than 40 seats in the Senate. And they are on record: They will filibuster any changes to the ACA and to re-instating Bush era tax cuts in their current form.

Go forth and  make money

To those in either party who think being a blockhead and refusing to govern, to compromise, well, what comes around goes around, eh?

Bottom line: All of this may make me look smart or very stupid on election night, but how do you make money from it all?

If you think I am wrong about the election, or that Bush era tax cuts will be saved or that the ACA is going away, uh, there is a bridge I can make available to you at a good price.

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