Is the Market Correction Coming?

by Jon Markman | October 22, 2013 9:16 am

There has been a lot of concern that stocks have gone too far lately without a 10% correction. The fear is that if the market goes on too long without losing at least a tenth of its value off a high, any pullbacks to come in the future will be a lot more dramatic.

The analysts over at Bespoke Investment Group took a look at that question this week and came up with an interesting study. They observed that the S&P 500 has now rallied 59% over a period of 515 trading days since Oct. 3, 2001, without logging a 10% decline from a high. And while it is certainly unusual, it is by no means unprecedented, or even close to the longest such streak.

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The chart at right, created by Bespoke, highlights all past rallies without a 10% correction since the index was created back in 1928. The current streak of 515 days is certainly well above average, but there have actually been two periods over the past 25 years that were more than twice as long!

The current streak would have to extend all the way out to Oct. 1, 2018 to match that record, which is kind of mind-boggling.

The bottom line is that as long as a low-growth environment also features low inflation and an accommodative monetary policy, the price/earnings multiples of successful companies can rise a lot higher than most people think.

The current climate features weak revenue growth, and most earnings growth is achieved by cost-cutting rather than new sales from innovation, but it can probably be more conducive to higher prices as long as inflation and interest rates remain subdued.

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