by Traders Reserve | October 30, 2013 11:51 am
Al Gore thinks the oil market is a bubble of epic proportions.
Thank you very much, Mr. Vice President. You have just given us lowly minions the buy signal of the century.
It has been my experience that when personalities like Gore or so-called experts spout off about this and that being a bubble, I know to do the opposite. It may seem counter-intuitive, but it’s not. Just think about the experts that were calling the Internet a bubble in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999.
My point is that even though the Internet was a bubble, it did not pop until many years after being so noted. The experts were right in calling it a bubble, but they were much too early to do so.
The profits gained by owning dot-com stocks built fortunes. The same is likely to happen in the oil space and we now have Al Gore to thank for sparking the rally.
Gore’s argument is that oil company reserves of some $7 trillion will never be fully realized. To burn those assets will destroy, the planet in his opinion. As such they cannot have the worth that the market currently assigns.
He might be right, but not any time soon.
Cheap shares, growth prospects in oil markets
If anything there is a renaissance in the oil market. Reserves are exploding with some discoveries due in part to the very global warming that concerns Gore. It’s a great time to own businesses exposed to the oil markets. Shares are cheap and the prospects of growth are secure for the near term.
Here are three names you should consider buying now that Gore has given the all-clear:
Despite what Gore claims, demand for oil has been steadily on the climb – a trend that is sure to continue given the explosion of development by third world countries. Look for oil drilling companies to perform very well long or short term.
From a valuation perspective, Atwood Oceanics (ATW) is quite attractive. Analysts expect profits at the company to grow by 20% next year. That result is virtually guaranteed no matter what Gore says about oil being a bubble. With shares trading for 10 times 2013 estimated earnings, how can you not own this stock? It’s a no-brainer.
In addition to oil, the natural gas market has the potential to explode. Unlike many stocks in the market it has been a choppy five years for Chesapeake Energy (CHK), but that will change with Gore’s proclamation of oil being a bubble market.
Talk about a cheap stock. Analysts expect Chesapeake to grow profits by 30% in 2014. You can buy that impressive growth for just 17 times 2013 estimated earnings. If the market rallies year, you can bet that Chesapeake will be one of the biggest gainers. Gore’s call has to be the contrarian indicator of the century.
Even if Gore is right, some portion of the $7 trillion in carbon assets is going to get burned. Even if only 10% of that amount, that’s still a pretty big number.
Front and center of processing that carbon is the oil refiner. Traditionally refining has been a tough business. The capital and maintenance expenses eat away at margins. Profits are razor-thin and as such, investors have typically shied away from owning the refiners. Oil price volatility doesn’t help either, but now might be a good time to own the oil refiners with prices seemingly stable at the $100 per barrel mark.
One of the cheapest refiners to own right now is Tesoro (TSO). The company is expected to grow profits by 70% next year. At current prices, shares trade for just 14 times 2013 estimated earnings. I think you can safely profit on this one for a year or two – long before the Gore oil bubble deflates.
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