Nate Silver’s Final Four Prediction Is Out With 2 Surprises

by Business Insider | March 17, 2014 10:22 am

ESPN’s Nate Silver went on Sportscenter this morning and revealed his favorites for the Final Four.

The prediction:

These are the favorites in each region according to Silver’s statistical model.

Florida and Arizona have been the best two teams in the country all year, so there’s no surprise there. But the other two picks are upsets, at least according to the seeds.

Louisville, despite being a #4 seed, is beloved by the advanced stats community. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings[1] — the most respected advanced metric in college basketball — have Louisville as the #2 team in the country.

It’s pretty surprising that Michigan State is Silver’s favorite in the East. They’re only ranked 10th in Pomeroy’s ratings, but they’re finally fully healthy after a horribly unlucky run of injuries in the middle of the season. Silver’s model must factor in health.

See Also:

  1. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings:
  2. Here’s Your 2014 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket:
  3. Creighton Player Botches Alley-Oop, Ends Up Throwing One Of The Craziest Passes You’ll Ever See:
  4. Seton Hall’s Buzzer-Beater Was the First Huge Upset Of March Madness:

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