Amazon.com, Inc. Stock Is Set to Grow Even More Offline

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Amazon stock - Amazon.com, Inc. Stock Is Set to Grow Even More Offline

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Ever since digital retail giant Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) acquired high-end grocer Whole Foods Market, everyone has been debating whether or not Amazon is making an all-out blitz into offline retail. Here’s my take: unequivocally, yes. And this all-out offline retail blitz will be one of the biggest drivers of Amazon stock over the next five-plus years.

Here’s why.

Why Amazon Is Making An Offline Retail Blitz

When it comes to Amazon and offline retail, the writing has been on the wall for sometime.

Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods was a big move. But it was just one move in a series of multiple offline retail moves Amazon has made recently.

The digital retail behemoth has opened bookstores (yes, bookstores). They’ve rolled out a cashier-less grocery store. They have plans to buy bankrupt Toys “R” Us locations and turn them into Amazon-branded stores. Plus, rumors have floated around that Amazon is going to buy Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) or Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST).

Amazon doesn’t operate many bookstores. It only has one cashier-less grocery store. And it hasn’t yet purchased any Toys “R” Us locations. Or Target or Costco. In other words, the sum total of Amazon’s offline retail operations outside of Whole Foods is currently very small.

But that isn’t the important the part. The important part is that these currently small-time operations give a glimpse of what “could be” for Amazon offline retail.

Just look at the book stores. Amazon made bookstores cool again. That was widely thought to be impossible. Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS) is the last man standing in the physical bookstore world after all its competitors have gone out of business. And BKS, even as the last man standing, has struggled mightily.

But Amazon bookstores have surprisingly high traffic. And that is because Amazon integrated technology into its bookstores to create a more modern shopping experience and leveraged its wide trove of consumer data to put the most in-demand books on shelves. Those a powerful moves. So powerful that they turned a dead retail sector into a popular one.

Onto Amazon’s cashier-less store, this is a huge breakthrough in offline retail. Not only is it cool (cool enough to attract customers based on the idea alone), but it is also exceptionally efficient.

Removing cashiers from stores removes a ton of wage expenses from the operating model. That should allow Amazon to lower prices and create a technology-infused shopping destination that also offers the best prices.

Essentially, although Amazon is still the early days of its offline retail push, the company has done some pretty big things on a small scale. Amazon made a struggling retail sector (bookstores) cool again by integrating technology and leveraging data, while showing that cashier-less stores are more reality than science fiction.

Put those two together, and it is easy to see how Amazon leverages technology and data to create an enormously successful offline retail empire over the next five-plus years. It’s even easier to see how it will affect Amazon stock.

Why It Matters for Amazon stock

Amazon controls the digital commerce market.

But despite all the media reports that malls are dying and brick-and-mortar shopping is going the way of the dinosaur, more than 90% of retail sales in the U.S. still happen in the brick-and-mortar format.

Granted, the share of ecommerce sales as a percent of the whole is growing. But only by about one percentage point each year. If that trend persists, then that means in five years, brick-and-mortar will still represent 85% of all retail sales.

Clearly, Amazon can’t dominate the entire U.S. retail landscape by exclusively dominating the digital retail market. By pushing into offline retail, Amazon will start capturing the 90% of retail sales that don’t happen online.

If (and when) Amazon does make its offline retail blitz, the company could be in the early stages of creating an offline retail empire that is on par with (if not bigger than) its digital retail business.

After all, Amazon’s retail business reported revenues of $160.4 billion last year. Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) reported revenues of $500 billion last year.

Offline retail could be the main catalyst which drives Amazon’s revenues to $500 billion and up over the next five-plus years. Amazon stock has room still to grow.

Bottom Line on Amazon Stock

Bears continue to scream about valuation on Amazon stock. But Amazon has a big and long growth runway. Between cloud, digital retail, and offline retail, that runway is big and long enough for AMZN to grow into its valuation.

Over the next several years, many things will push Amazon stock higher. But the one catalyst which feels most under-appreciated currently is the company’s offline retail push.

As such, I think offline retail could be that surprise “spark” that drives AMZN stock to out-sized returns over the next 5-plus years.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN, TGT, and COST.  


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/03/amazon-stock-grow-offline/.

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