Shares of athletic apparel-maker Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) surged higher in Monday trade after Deutsche Bank upgraded Under Armour stock on what the investment bank called a “rapidly growing” international business.

But I think the strong move higher in Under Armour stock is just a head fake.

The upgrade wasn’t a bullish call. Deutsche Bank went from “Sell” to “Hold,” so this is just a bear becoming less bearish.

Moreover, the reason for the upgrade — “rapidly growing” international sales — is already priced into the stock. What UAA needs is stabilization in its North American business — and/or dramatic improvements in profitability. And neither of those will likely come to fruition any time soon.

As such, I still think Under Armour stock is worth $16. A “Hold” rating makes sense with Under Armour trading at just over $16. But if UAA keeps heading higher towards the upper teens, the stock will quickly become a sell.

Here’s a deeper look:

Under Armour Has a Big International Growth Opportunity

Deutsche Bank is right. Under Armour does have a tremendous opportunity to grow its international business and use strength overseas to offset domestic weakness.

Just look at Skechers USA Inc (NYSE:SKX). That company has a red-hot international business that is roughly the same size as Under Armour’s international business ($1 to 2 billion per year). SKX just reported first-quarter results, and while they were overall disappointing, the international business did perform quite well. That implies good things for UAA’s international business.

Meanwhile, Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) reported international revenues of over $5 billion in last quarter alone. Thus, Nike’s international revenues in a single quarter are about five times as large as Under Armour’s international revenues in a whole year.

As such, the runway for potentially huge growth in the international business is quite long for UAA.

Under Armour’s International Growth Won’t Remain

Here’s the problem: International sales trends usually follow domestic sales trends. UAA’s North America business, which is about a fourth of the size of NKE’s North America business, is already in decline.

That doesn’t bode well for future international growth.

In all likelihood, growth in the international business will slow at an alarmingly early stage, much like it did in the North America business. At that point, both international and domestic sales growth will be sluggish. What will be the driver then?

In other words, investors shouldn’t assume robust, 40%-plus international revenue growth will persist into perpetuity. Just a few years ago, North America revenue growth was 25%-plus. Now, it is in negative territory.

What Under Armour Stock Is Worth

Weakness in the domestic segment doesn’t bode well for the future growth prospects of the international business. Because of this, Under Armour stock isn’t worth much more than $16.

Sales growth last year was 3%. Even if North America revenue erosion stabilizes and international growth remains red hot, overall revenue growth won’t be much better than 7.5% over the next five years. Operating margins should rebound, but won’t regain peak 10%-plus levels seen earlier this decade. Not only are the competitive dynamics more intense now, but UAA is also diluting its brand image and shipping products to lower-price distribution channels like Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE:KSS). Thus, 7.5% operating margins seem reasonable in five years.

Roughly 5% revenue growth per year and 7.5% operating margins in five years implies revenues of $6.35 billion and operating profits of $476 million.

Taking out $45 million for net interest expense, 26% for taxes, and dividing by a presumably reduced share count of 215 million, you arrive at earnings per share of roughly $1.48 in five years.

A market-average 16-times forward multiple on those $1.48 earnings implies a four-year forward price target of roughly $23.70. Discounting that back by 10% per year, you arrive at a present value of roughly $16 for Under Armour stock.

Bottom Line on Under Armour Stock

The international growth opportunity is promising, considering how small Under Armour’s international business is. But the rapid slowdown in the North America business is a huge red flag for future international growth prospects.

Consequently, Under Armour stock won’t head much higher from here.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long SKX.