The stock market has been a mess in October, and earnings season hasn’t really come to the rescue. If anything, earnings season has only exacerbated the selloff in equities, as corporate earnings are coming in lighter than expected and management teams across the nation are lowering outlooks. Athletic apparel company Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) should be no exception to this broad market trend. Under Armour is slated to report its third-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Tuesday.

UAA earnings won’t be that good. The company’s domestic numbers will show stability, but my research indicates that its international results could be weak. Given that the growth outlook of Under Armour and the bullish case for UAA stock are centered around international growth, a deceleration in that area could exacerbate the current weakness of Under Armour stock.

Meanwhile, UAA stock still isn’t quite cheap enough to be attractive solely based on its valuation.

Overall, then, there are reasons to be worried about Under Armour stock heading into UAA earnings. The numbers likely won’t be good where they need to be good. The markets are in selloff mode. And UAA stock is still trading at a triple-digit forward earnings multiple.

That situation won’t lead to a post-earnings pop. Instead, it’s likely to lead to a decline of UAA stock.

UAA Earnings Should Be Decent, But Not Great

My research indicates that UAA earnings will be a mixed bag. As I mentioned earlier, the company’s domestic business probably stabilized last quarter, and that is a positive development. But on the flip-side, the international business likely deteriorated in Q3, and that’s a more meaningful, negative development.

Google search trends related to Under Armour remain weak in the U.S. But those trends have improved since we last heard from the company in late July. Since then, the number of searches for terms related to Under Armour have fallen by an average of 7%, versus an average decline of 9% from January through July. In the last few years, the number of searches in the U.S. for terms related to Under Armour has lined up pretty well with the performance of UAA stock.

Meanwhile, a recent survey of teens by Piper Jaffray  indicates that Under Armour’s popularity in the U.S. may be stabilizing after several months of erosion. Among males, Under Armour saw slight mind-share gains from Spring 2018 to Fall 2018. But Under Armour lost the most ground among upper-income males, a trend that has remained in place for the past two years while UAA stock has tanked.

Thus, it appears that while Under Armour’s popularity likely stabilized in the U.S. during Q3, it didn’t soar, either.

Looking at global search trends, we can see a fairly sizable deterioration in Google searches related to Under Armour since late July. Such searches are down 5% during that period, versus an average decline of 2% year-to-date through July. Much like domestic searches, the number of global searches has correlated well with the performance of UAA stock. In 2015, global searches were up 20%. In 2016, they were up 14%. By 2017, they had become flat.

This drop in international searches has coincided with concerns about international economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, the strong dollar is a major headwind for overseas sales of the company’s products. There is emerging market weakness everywhere you look right now. Tariffs are starting to have a real and sizable impact on the global economy. And the recent resurgence of Nike (NYSE:NKE) likely cut into Under Armour’s market share.

Under Armour Stock Will Likely Struggle

My broad read on UAA earnings is that its domestic numbers will be better than expected, and its international numbers will come in below expectations.

That isn’t a favorable combination for UAA stock. Investors are relying on explosive international growth to boost Under Armour stock. But that growth has been cooling for several quarters. If overseas growth continues to cool meaningfully, it will look like the international business is following in the footsteps of the domestic business, which went from red-hot to flat in a hurry.

Importantly, if the international business goes from red-hot to flat, UAA stock doesn’t deserve its current valuation.

UAA stock presently trades at a triple-digit forward earnings multiple. That’s a big multiple for this sector. Granted, bulls will say it is big because the company’s margins are low, its revenue growth is accelerating and the company’s profits can grow quickly over the next several years. But that thesis only works if the company’s international business remains hot. If its growth starts to cool, that thesis gets thrown out the window.

Thus, if Under Armour’s international numbers weakened in Q3 like I believe that they did, then UAA stock could decline further, exacerbating its recent selloff.

Bottom Line on UAA Stock

At some point, Under Armour will get its groove back and become trendy again. When that happens, Under Armour stock will head meaningfully higher. Until then, though, Under Armour stock will at best move sideways, held down by its super-charged valuation.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long NKE.