3 Reasons Why You Need to Slam on the Brakes With Ford Stock

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Ford stock - 3 Reasons Why You Need to Slam on the Brakes With Ford Stock

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With no shortage of market-related drama in 2018, the automotive sector almost seems like an afterthought. When people did think about it, it was not in a positive context. That said, Ford Motor (NYSE:F) looks odious, even against an already ugly subsegment. Should stakeholders worry about Ford stock?

In short, yes. Although the Ford stock price had a nice jump at the start of last year, it did nothing longer term. In 2018, shares dropped more than 34%. Geopolitical pressures and serious domestic challenges have combined to form an ugly headwind for the iconic automaker.

To be fair, this isn’t solely an issue impacting F stock. Almost every other manufacturer, from domestic rival General Motors (NYSE:GM) to Japanese nemesis Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), have suffered steep losses. The difference is, Ford appears to be on the precipice of life support.

Here are three reasons why it’s time to hit the panic button on F stock:

Ford Stock Price Chart Flashes Warning Signs

Anytime a major publicly traded organization loses 30% market value in a year, it’s deeply troubling. But with Ford stock, the lack of any meaningful upside momentum suggests further pain ahead.

In December, the automaker’s shares tumbled over 21%. To have some confidence that the recent spike will go somewhere, I’d need to see a stronger move. Failing that, I’d like some fundamental evidence that the industry will eventually recover. From what I can tell, F stock merely enjoyed a reactionary impulse.

Ford stock price chart
Source: Source: JYE Financial, unless otherwise indicated
Otherwise, I don’t see any benefit to gambling here. For one thing, the Ford stock price broke below a two-and-a-half-year-long support channel last summer. Since then, shares have been on an accelerated decline.

Clearly, the automaker is in panic mode. I recommend not trying to catch a falling knife in this environment. There’s too many of them — and they’re extra sharp.

The Trade War Has Stalled F Stock

Our ongoing trade war with China is a tricky issue. On one hand, the natural reaction is to panic. On Wednesday, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook announced lower-than-expected iPhone revenues in China. That disclosure had an immediate and negative impact on the futures markets.

However, others like Fisher Investments’ Ken Fisher counter that the China tariffs have a minimal impact on the GDP. In his words, this is “making mountains out of molehills.”

So which perspective is the accurate one? Unfortunately for F stock, they’re both equally valid. Fisher is correct in that the trade war won’t derail our relatively vibrant and robust economy. At the same time, we only need to look at Apple to realize that individual harm exists.

Obviously, it’s very easy for the Chinese government to shut down U.S. auto imports, because they have so many options. Not coincidentally, Sino-Japanese relations have thawed during the trade war. Over the long run, this is bullish for Japanese automakers, and bearish for Ford stock.

Even if the Trump administration reaches a deal with China, U.S. automakers won’t necessarily be the biggest beneficiaries. That envious status could fall to German companies, which have invested heavily in U.S.-based production facilities.

And to be blunt, Chinese consumers don’t want average, everyday American sedans. Instead, they crave the status that only European luxury models can deliver.

Americans Don’t Want American Cars

A running joke among my friends and peers is that Americans don’t want to buy American cars. Of course, this is an anecdotal statement, but it’s rooted in facts.

To start, automotive sales in general have stalled. Millennials and Generation Z simply don’t have the same automotive desires as older demographics. Further, domestic auto sales have steadily declined since the mid-1990s.

While American vehicles occupy the top three best-selling brands, they’re all heavy-duty trucks. For passenger cars — the kind that has international appeal — the Japanese simply dominate.

Earlier this year, Ford gave up on its domestic light-vehicle business, investing only in the Mustang and the Focus Active. The move made sense on paper. However, it’s a bad sign for F stock longer-term. Because if we won’t buy our own cars, how can we expect others to?

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/01/3-reasons-you-slam-brakes-ford-stock/.

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