Earnings Can End the Rally for Bed Bath & Beyond Stock

Advertisement

Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) reports earnings on Wednesday morning — and I’d be very nervous holding Bed Bath & Beyond stock ahead of that report. BBBY stock has soared of late, but earnings haven’t been the driver.

BBBY Stock: How Earnings Can End the Rally for Bed Bath & Beyond Stock

Rather, the big force of late behind BBBY stock has been an activist effort to replace the company’s entire board. Certainly, Bed Bath & Beyond could use a change at the top: BBBY hit a 20-year low in December.

But I wrote last month that the risk is that the activists simply are too late. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) has been taking share for years, and that’s not the only competitor the company has to worry about. TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) continues to expand its HomeGoods concept. Other off-price retailers like Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST) and Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) have been targeting Bed Bath & Beyond’s core categories as well.

Indeed, the run in BBBY — which now has bounced 75% from its lows — looks like it has gone a bit too far. And history suggests that earnings might be the catalyst to send the stock again heading in the wrong direction.

Bed Bath & Beyond Earnings Look Dangerous

From one standpoint, expectations don’t seem all that high for the fiscal fourth quarter report. Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.11, 25% below the $1.48 adjusted figure from Q4 FY17. (BBBY stock’s fiscal years end roughly at the end of the following February.) That’s in line with Bed Bath & Beyond guidance for roughly $2 per share for the full year, which implies $1.14 in Q4 EPS. Consensus revenue estimates project a decline of over 10%.

It’s worth remembering, however, that last year’s fourth quarter had a 14th week, which skewed both sales and profits. Guidance seems to suggest a low-single-digit decline in comparable sales. Given that the company cited a 5-cent benefit to EPS last year from the extra week, consensus is looking for about a 22% drop in adjusted EPS.

It might sound like analysts and management are expecting a weak quarter. They are. But in the context of recent performance, expectations actually look somewhat high. Same-store sales are down 1% so far this year against a 1.7% decline the year before. Bed Bath & Beyond has a tougher comparison in Q4 — just 0.5% — and yet it seems like top-line expectations are about in line with the performance so far in fiscal 2018.

It’s on the earnings front that the projections look particularly aggressive. A 22% decline in earnings isn’t good news. But, again, relative to YTD performance, it would be a notable improvement. Through the first nine months, earnings have fallen over 47%. Simply to meet expectations, Bed Bath & Beyond is going to have do better.

BBBY Stock Is Dangerous After Earnings

Given the trend here, expecting improvement so soon seems risky. And history shows that BBBY stock can get hammered when it disappoints.

Indeed, in a span of six quarters in 2017-18, BBBY stock dropped at least 12% after four of the reports. Most recently, BBBY fell 21% after Q2 earnings in September. A year ago, Q4 results led to a 20% decline. Earlier in FY17, the stock dropped 12% after Q1, and another 16% following Q2.

In several cases, the problem was that Bed Bath & Beyond overpromised and then had to lower guidance. Given that Street analysts seem to believe guidance (roughly), BBBY stock is relying on management being right this time. That hardly seems like a bet worth taking.

Are Activists Enough?

What does change the case here — perhaps — is the presence of the activists. It’s possible that even bad numbers could be seen as good news. A disappointing report only undercuts the case of management and increases the likelihood that the activists will win.

And from here, it looks like the activists likely are going to win. Certainly the market believes that’s the case: BBBY stock wouldn’t have gained 22% on the news of the activist filing if the market figured existing management was staying on board.

And so BBBY earnings look awfully dangerous. Expectations from a fundamental standpoint look reasonably high relative to recent performance. The stock has gained 75% in less than four months. The company has a history of disappointing. Perhaps most importantly, the focus is turning from hopes for new management to results from the same management investors are so excited about replacing.

Another miss here would wipe out much of the optimism built up in recent weeks, as it might suggest that Bed Bath & Beyond has too many problems to fix quickly, if they can be fixed at all. It’s going to take a big report to keep the rally going, and we just don’t have enough evidence that this management team, and this company, are capable of generating those types of results.

As of this writing, Vince Martin had no positions in any securities mentioned.

After spending time at a retail brokerage, Vince Martin has covered the financial industry for close to a decade for InvestorPlace.com and other outlets.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/04/earnings-end-rally-bed-bath-beyond-bbby-stock/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC