Ambev Stock Might Be the Best Beer Bet Heading into 2020 

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Back in April, I featured Brazilian beer company Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) in an article about the best large-cap stocks to own under $10. As I write this, Ambev stock is up 4.5%.

Ambev Stock Might Be the Best Beer Bet Heading into 2020 

The two other stocks recommended: Ford (NYSE:F) is down 1.6% and Sirius XM (NYSE:SIRI) is up 13.7%. Over the same five months, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%, an indication that low-priced stocks did well over the summer.

As for Anheuser-Busch (NYSE:BUD), who owns more than 60% of ABEV stock is up 6.9% over the same period, 240 basis points higher than its Brazilian subsidiary. However, year to date it’s up 45.0% including dividends through Sept. 11, 2.4 times Ambev’s total return for the year. 

With three-and-a-half months left in 2019, I’m wondering if ABEV, BUD, or some other beer stock is the best bet heading into 2020. 

Ambev Stock is the Best Bet

Ambev’s 15-year total annual return is quite good, at 11.2%. That trails both its brewing peers and the Brazilian market at 13.5%. However, the entire U.S. market over this period could only muster a total return of 9.3%.

My InvestorPlace colleague Vince Martin recently highlighted in an article in late August that Ambev has a much stronger balance sheet than its parent and is growing its normalized EBITDA on an organic basis at more than 10% per year.   

In the first six months of 2019, Ambev’s revenues increased by 7.4%. Three of its operating segments: Brazil, Central America and the Caribbean, and Canada delivered growth while only the company’s South American division (excluding Brazil) experienced declining sales. 

South America might be experiencing a craft beer boom but Ambev’s holding its own in a very competitive market. It’s also important to remember that Ambev also makes non-alcoholic beverage products. In the first six months of 2019, it grew this segment by 19.6%, accounting for 15% of Ambev’s overall revenues. 

Although Ambev has only paid an eight-cent dividend so far in 2019, its goal is to deliver an average annual yield of 5%. Currently, its forward dividend yield is 5.2%. 

Over the long haul, buying ABEV stock under $5 should deliver above-average results, including the dividends

Bud’s the Call

Even though Budweiser might have a ton of debt on its balance sheet (its net debt at the end of June was $104.2 billion) it still managed to generate $9.1 billion in free cash flow in the first six months of the year.

On an annualized basis over the trailing 12 months, BUD had $11.5 billion in free cash flow, $54.1 billion in revenue, and a free cash flow margin of 21.1%. This means it’s generating 21 cents of free cash flow for every $1 of revenue.

Anheuser-Busch said to be reviving its IPO plans for its Asian business, a move that’s expected to raise $5 billion and give it additional liquidity on the remainder of its ownership stake, the company’s giving itself financial flexibility to pay down debt, repurchase shares, buy a cannabis company, or countless other things it could do with the funds. 

The point is, Anheuser-Busch is the largest beer company in the world. Investors shouldn’t have a problem with a dividend yield of 3.5% given the appreciation it’s experienced so far in 2019.    

The Bottom Line on Ambev Stock

If you’re not sure which beer company to back, a good alternative would be to buy a thematic portfolio, either through an ETF, mutual fund, or third-party provider such as Motif Investing. 

Motif currently has a portfolio called “Take a Shot” that invests in makers of alcoholic beverages including BUD and ABEV, which account for 19.4% and 16.6% of the portfolio, respectively. Beer stocks account for 46.3% of the portfolio with wine and spirits, accounting for the rest.

Over the past year, it’s generated a return of 8.6%, better than both the S&P 500 and the Invesco Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF (NYSEARCA:PBJ). 

At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/09/ambev-stock-best-beer-bet/.

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