If there is a healthcare stock more cursed than Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), I’d love to hear about it. But, unfortunately, NVAX stock has had so many ups and downs since the pandemic began in early 2020, it’s hard to know what will get it back on track.
And despite the healthcare gods having a significant hate-on for Novavax and its shareholders, I continue to believe it will have a happy ending.
In the meantime, the omicron variant has given its share price a boost in the past week or so. It’s up almost 10% as I write this.
Now might be the perfect time to buy NVAX stock despite all its trials and tribulations. Here’s why.
NVAX Stock and $200
I have to admit that I’ve been mesmerized by a $200 share price for Novavax virtually since the beginning of this pandemic in December 2019. Over the past 24 months, I’ve written at least three articles (that I can find) with $200 in the headline — two in 2020 and one in 2021.
In July 2020, I said that NVAX hitting $200 by the end of the year seemed like an easy target. On July 30, 2020, it was trading around $143. About six weeks later, in September 2020, I said $200 was looking less likely. It had fallen to below $100.
It turns out the closest NVAX stock got to $200 was on Aug. 5, 2020, when it hit a high of $189.40 before closing the day at $173.49. The third time I wrote about $200 was on Aug. 11, 2021.
If You Can Buy Novavax Stock at Around $200, It’s a Great Long Term Bet, the headline declared. NVAX closed trading that day at $234.30. It was one of the 99 days in 2021 it traded above the magical mark. Except for a few days in November, it’s been under $200 ever since.
With all the stories of the unvaccinated in many parts of the world — 48% of the world’s population is fully vaccinated — I continue to believe that Novavax would get some dance partners along the way. And they have.
But it seems like investors are solely focused on the company getting a major power such as the UK or U.S. to start administering Covavax before they will genuinely get behind Novavax’s stock. That’s a shame.
From everything I’ve read, Covavax is an acceptable vaccine that can save lives. Yet, it’s barely gotten in the game while Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) are raking in the dough.
The Glass Is Half Full
The BMJ, a UK-based medical publication, recently ran an article entitled Covid-19: Whatever happened to the Novavax vaccine?
That’s an excellent question.
In this article, The BMJ reported some of the comments of Hilda Bastian, a scientific commentator who has a Ph.D. in health science.
In the Atlantic, Hilda Bastian wrote, ‘Among several wonderful options, the more old-school vaccine from Novavax combines ease of manufacture with high efficacy and lower side effects. For the moment, it’s the best covid-19 vaccine we have,” The BMJ reported.
She went on to say about Novavax:
“It still looks like one of the contenders for best covid vaccine,’ with the provision that, until there’s a rollout, ‘we won’t know about potential rare adverse effects and duration of effectiveness,’” Bastian told The BMJ.
Further, she feels the U.S. and other wealthy countries didn’t do enough to help Novavax get over the finish line. We shouldn’t be surprised. America loves making the rich [Pfizer] richer while ignoring the plight of the poor.
Bottom Line
So despite all the setbacks, I’m a glass-half-full kind of person. The last time I wrote about Novavax at the end of October, I felt like 2022 would be a much better year for Novavax and its shareholders.
On Dec. 16, the World Health Organization will convene to discuss giving Novavax EUA (emergency use authorization) status. If this works out, $300, not $200, could be the next target if it gets the greenlight.
If it doesn’t, I don’t see how it jumps above $200 in the year ahead. More likely, it makes a gradual retreat back below $100.
As I said in October, if you’re a speculative investor, I think the risk-t0-reward proposition remains high.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
