Markets rarely move at random. InvestorPlace’s leading analysts break down macro trends, sector dynamics, and recurring market patterns to help investors understand what is changing, what matters most, and where opportunities may emerge.
By
Jon Markman, Editor, Trader's Advantage and CounterPoint Options
Recent reports out of investor conferences and management updates make it look as if the first-quarter earnings reports will rock. Here are a few news items from Honeywell (HON), Ball Corp. (BALL) and Applied Materials (AMAT) in the past week that have already caught investors' imaginations:
Drug store chain Walgreen Co. (WAG) reported this morning that same-store sales for the month of March grew by 2.3% year-over-year, and 6.4% overall. An earlier Easter holiday contributed 0.7% to the chain's growth. The company also noted that it opened 52 stores during March, to bring the total number of stores to 7,720. CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) and Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) are expected to report March sales later this week. Other major prescription drug sellers are Target Corp. (TGT) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).
Outdoor clothing and footwear manufacturer Deckers Outdoor (DECK) has been a standout among beleaguered retail stocks. Shares are up nearly 250% since the March 2009 lows with no sign of slowing down. The secret to Deckers' success are trendy and durable Ugg brand boots that account for 87% of the company's revenue -- and consequently, the company's rapidly growing bottom line. But the 2007 collapse of Crocs (CROX) showed all too well that when it comes to cashing in on fashion, tastes change overnight.
After a disappointing February video game sales report, many analyst insiders are predicting a strong month in March for top video game makers Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Sony (SNE) and Take Two Interactive (TTWO). Hardware makers like Nintendo (NTDOY) and Microsoft (MSFT), however, may still be feeling a bit of a crunch.
The U.S. unemployment rate for March remained unchanged at 9.7%. The economy added 162,000 jobs in March, of which 48,000 were temporary U.S. census workers. Private employers added 123,000 jobs in March.
The calendar has turned over to April and that means the first quarter has come to a close. The first three months of the year have been profitable for all the major indexes, with the Dow up 4.1%. Many component stocks like Boeing (BA), General Electric (GE) and Bank of America (BAC) performed significantly better -- but some like Alcoa (AA), AT&T (T) and Pfizer (PFE) fared significantly worse.
Many traders tout the predictive value of implied volatility, but there's a good chance it will lead you astray, as it did with some unlucky Research In Motion (RIMM) traders.
Denny's (DENN) is serving up a new "$2 $4 $6 $8 Value Menu." That positions DENN in a sweet spot as the cheapest casual dining option and a higher quality restaurant for families with only a few bucks to spend that typcially go to McDonald's (MCD), Burger King (BKC), Wendy's/Arby's (WEN) or Yum! Restaurants (YUM) brands like Taco Bell and KFC. DineEquity (DIN) chain Applebees has also tried to play the low end of the price game with its Pick'N Pair lunch combos that start at $5.99.
By
Jim Woods, Editor-in-Chief, Successful Investing, Intelligence Report, Bullseye Stock Trader
This market is just like the Energizer Bunny -- it keeps going, and going, and going. But at some point, even this uber-energized equity bunny will need to stop and recharge its battery. When this happens, we're likely to see a correction of anywhere from 7% to 10% nearly across the board. Now, there are three ways you can respond to a correction. First, you can sell your positions and head into the safety of cash. Second, you can just ride the pullback out and hope that it doesn't turn into a bear market of the sorts we witnessed in 2008 and early 2009. Or, you can do what the smart money does and use inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to collect big profits while stocks on are the retreat.
A Wall Street Journal report shows top companies are paying their top leaders almost 1% less in 2009 than the previous year. Leading the drop was Dish Network (DISH), where founder and CEO Charles Ergen suffered the harshest drop in pay across the entire WSJ survey -- a drop of 92.5% to $623,100 a year in total compensation.
The price of crude oil has been rising steadily for the past two months on indications that the global economy is recovering. The price is now above $85/barrel on the NYMEX, a jump of about 25% just since February.
After the markets closed yesterday, bookseller Borders Group, Inc. (BGP) announced its fourth quarter 2009 and full year earnings. The company reported EPS of $0.91 for the quarter on revenue of $946.5 million. Earnings were double the same period a year ago, while revenues were 13% lower. Same-store sales were off 14% at Borders stores and 8.5% at the group's Waldenbooks stores.
By
Jim Woods, Editor-in-Chief, Successful Investing, Intelligence Report, Bullseye Stock Trader
There was a time when Research In Motion (RIMM) owned the smart phone space. Its ubiquitous BlackBerry unit ruled the roost, and no other handset maker could even come close to it in terms of sales and customer loyalty. But that was then, and this is now -- with the Apple (AAPL) iPhone the gold standard and Google (GOOG) the new up-and-comer with its Android OS. That doesn't look too good for RIM, and headwinds it faces going forward could stymie the stock's progress, and that's bad news for shareholders.
Aerospace and defense stock Honeywell (HON) raised its guidance late Tuesday, driving shares up today even while the broader market has rolled back. The dividend stock now expects first-quarter profit to range from 45 to 49 cents per share, up from prior guidance for 40 to 45 cents. For the full year, HON expects profits to reach the top end of its prior $2.20 to $2.40 forecast.
While Greece is stealing the spotlight as sovereign debt woes threaten to cripple the nation's public sector, Ireland's balance sheet has quietly been getting worse – and now its debt problems are so bad it could have the dubious honor of beating Greece to bankruptcy.
Drug store chain Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) reported fourth quarter and full 2010 fiscal year earnings today, and the numbers were softer than expected. The company's EPS lost -$0.24, compared with consensus estimates of -$0.20. Revenue came in at $6.46 billion, barely lower than estimates of $6.47 billion.
By
Jon Markman, Editor, Trader's Advantage and CounterPoint Options
Big news of the past week from a corporate perspective was the terrific earnings report produced by Best Buy (BBY). As owners of the great SPDR Retail (XRT) fund, this is important because Best Buy is a major component and a bellwether for the rest of the industry.