Stocks have suffered through an epic November even after the recent surge, and the index roll call this year still has the capacity to shock: The Dow is down 39%, the S&P 500 is down 45%, the Nasdaq is down 48% and the Russell 2000 is down 47%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly unemployment report came out last week, and as you probably know it wasn't real pretty. How much worse will things get, and how long will it take to get there?

The U.S. economy clearly worsened over the past two weeks, and shows no sign of slowing its downside momentum. Among the data points were terrible retail sales report and outlook from Best Buy (BBY), the bankruptcy of rival Circuit City (CC) and lousy same-store sales reports from JC Penney (JCP), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN).

Investors find themselves at a familiar crossroad now, though the sky is darkening so it's harder to see the path forward. From a technical point of view, U.S. stocks are clearly near the bottom of their recent range.

Some terrific elements lined up in trading today that actually make me hopeful that U.S. stocks put in a meaningful intermediate-term bottom at last.

When the election euphoria ends, the markets and investors have to face reality about the economy.

So how about that bond market, huh? Surely those smart guys are getting with the idea that expectations for the economy have bottomed and everything's going to be OK pretty soon, right? Umm, sorry. Not so much.

So why can't the market get going in a meaningful way despite seemingly low valuations? The simple answer is that prospects for the economy are weak and getting weaker.

The past 30 days were really a truly amazing stretch of time in market history. Take a deep breath and congratulate yourself for living through it, particularly if you have been following our advice here to keep 75% of your investable funds in cash and did not see a fifth of your net worth eroded.

Panic is driving the action on the exchanges, but there are ways to avoid the mayhem.

Stocks fell hard over the past month, with the U.S. indexes are off around 25%, while London (EWU) is down 30%, China's market (FXI) is off 35% and Latin America (ILF) is down 45%. Yes, that's one month.

This past weekend I saw an increase in the number of institutional investors or researchers that I consider to be smart making forecasts that the 2008 bear market is either over, or nearly over.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors, whom I respect, is one of the veterans making the call that it's time to ease back in stocks. He makes the case that we've just suffered a secular bear market, but government has acted fast enough to avoid a devastating bear.

Long-only money managers are urging investors to play the coming bottom. Before you become a lemming, check out this S&P math.

Stocks pulled a U-turn on the road to oblivion this week, as the major indexes apparently decided it was not the right day for a total meltdown. Yet breadth was terrible, volume was poor and selling pressure was strong.

The "world's greatest investor" is out there buying stocks now. Should you follow his lead?