Timing a Trend in Gold

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With the market’s uncertainty and other influences firmly in place, gold has made another run to its highs with investors flocking to the “old standard” for safety.

As always, investors take note of a trend when it reaches a new high or low. So let’s take a few minutes to look at the gold charts for potential trading ideas.

For those who may not know, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that invests in a security linked to the price of gold, which is currently trading in the $1,000-per-troy-ounce area.

As investors have looked for inflation-safe investments, GLD shares have become increasingly popular during the past few years.

The chart on the next page displays recent GLD price activity, which is trending toward its all-time highs of around $100. The shares saw a surge as investors started crowding back into the gold trade when the market was testing its November lows.

So, is the time right to jump into GLD shares?

The answer depends on the type of investor you are.

Long-term investors will find the gold trade a little frustrating during the short term, as it is likely to gyrate in a trading range near its highs.

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Shorter-term traders may find GLD shares a little more appealing right now for potential quick gains. I expect to see the shares dip a little further to test their 50-day moving average before mounting another campaign to top $100. The current 50-day trendline sits just above $87 (the blue line below).

I expect to see some support as the shares cross below their 20-day trendline (green line below), which is currently around $92. In addition, the $90 level will add some short-term support to the shares due to its round-numbered properties. (The market likes to rally and sell off around round numbers.)

In addition to the technicals, GLD options trading activity is currently headed toward some potentially optimistic levels. The put/call ratio is headed back to its lows due to increasing call volume on the shares.

This makes me a bit wary of a long trade.

For now, I’m eyeing the trend in gold and GLD for potential short-term trades.


Chris Johnson is the co-editor of The Winning Edge trading service designed to help you make options profits around corporate earnings and other market events. For more information about Chris, read his bio here.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/02/timing-a-trend-in-gold/.

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