Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 100% Cash
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 a.m.), Treasury International Capital (9 a.m.), Housing Market Index (10 a.m.)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ (NASDAQ: .NDX) down due to Steve Jobs going on medical leave.
- Asian markets were flat, while European markets show strength in excess of 1%.
- Steve Jobs going on medical leave, and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) reporting after the bell, will be the focus of traders today.
- Apple will act as a major drag on NASDAQ today and technology stocks in general.
- A lot of reasons to believe the market will see some selling pressures in the days ahead. Particularly the overhead resistance in terms of price channels and Bollinger Bands that typify a pullback scenario.
- With that said, it appears that risk is increasing by a large amount at this juncture while reward looks greatly limited at this point.
- A pullback in the S&P 500 Index to 1270 would be ideal (lower, short-term price channel), to help the market relieve some of the overhead pressures that it is currently facing.
- There should be some support at 1278 on the S&P.
- A strong move out of the upper price band, could see the S&P push higher up to 1310.
- But expect some resistance at 1300 – a lot of talk about the market reaching that milestone, and now that it has, we could see a flood of profit takers hit the wires.
- 1261 represents the short-term ‘higher-low’.
- Volume was slightly stronger on Friday then previous sessions. An increase today from Friday, on market strength would further encourage the bulls.
- The more long-term trend-line dating back to Sept. 1 currently has support at 1247.
- For the bears – Use the overbought nature of this market and the weakness created by Apple today, to pounce on the bulls.
- For the bulls – Breakout of the short-term price band overhead, and make a move for 1300, and close above the critical milestone.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:
- 100% Cash today heading into the open.
- On Friday, closed F5 Networks (NASDAQ: FFIV) at $143.90 for a .8% loss, Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) at $86.77 for a 2.4% gain, First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) at $140.66 for a 0.9% gain, MeadWestvaco (NYSE: MWV) at $27.18 for breakeven, BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT) at $27.72 for a .8% gain, and Brigham Exploration Co. (NASDAQ: BEXP) at $28.34 for a .5% loss.
- Will consider day-trading the breakout setups that look the most appealing to me.
- Willing to jump back in to the long side, should the market show unabated strength.
- May look at trading Apple some today.
- Initiating one to two new short positions is not out of the question today.
- Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.
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