Pepsi Vs. Coke — On the Trading Floor

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PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) is expected to report double-digit revenue growth Wednesday morning. But is that good enough to justify an investment, or would your portfolio prefer Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)?

Analysts are expecting Pepsi to report EPS of $1.30 per share on revenue of $17.28 billion — 11.4% higher than the year before. Moreover, there is a hint that Pepsi will report slower growth in North America than in emerging markets.

That’s because, according to SeekingAlpha, PepsiCo CFO Hugh Johnston recently told a Barclay’s back-to-school conference that emerging markets generate more than 30% of its total revenue — partially offsetting “losses in North America and Europe.”

PepsiCo’s business certainly has risks that are worth considering. For example, its stock has fallen during the past few months because of investor concerns about the outlook for the global economy and emerging markets, a strong dollar that would make it less competitive in global markets, increased competition and higher prices for corn — a key ingredient in many of its products.

Coca-Cola also faces headwinds. Bloomberg cited one analyst that lowered earnings estimates on the company. For the third quarter, a JPMorgan analyst lowered his third-quarter EPS estimate 3% from $1.03 to $1; for 2011, he reduced it 1.5% from $3.86 to $3.80; and for 2012, he cut 4% from $4.23 to $4.06. While the analyst thinks Coke’s fundamentals and growth potential rank high with peers, he thinks foreign exchange and interest income changes will hurt future earnings.

The JPMorgan analyst thinks Coca-Cola stock has had too good of a rise. Coke has gained almost 40% since July 2010, and the analyst thinks it’s overpriced. He lowered his 2012 target for the stock from $80 to $76.

So, how do PepsiCo and Coca-Cola match up?

  • Pepsi: Growing, profitable company; overpriced stock. PepsiCo revenues spiked 33.8% to $62.4 billion in the last year, and its net income rose 6.3% to $6.3 billion — yielding a wide 10.2% profit margin. But its price/earnings-to-growth ratio is an overvalued 2.09 (where 1.0 is considered fairly valued) with a P/E of 15.7 on earnings forecast to grow 7.5% to $4.74 in 2012.
  • Coke: Growing, profitable company; slightly overpriced stock. Coca-Cola revenues are up 13.3% in the last year to $32.2 billion, and its net income spiked 73% to $12.5 billion — earning a whopping 29.8% net profit margin. And its PEG is a reasonable 1.28 on a P/E of 12.5 with earnings forecast to grow 9.8% to $4.23 in 2012.

Coke looks like a much better bet than Pepsi. However, given concerns about its upcoming earnings, I would be inclined to wait until another market crunch to pick up Coke stock at a lower price.

Peter Cohan has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/10/pepsi-vs-coke-on-the-trading-floor/.

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