The electronic gaming industry is in a shooting war between traditional console gamers and social network gaming. Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) reporting strong earnings Tuesday after the bell, and rival Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) did the same earlier this season. But which is the better bet?
These two companies are in a shooting war. That’s because Activision’s Call of Duty controls 90% of the so-called shooter segment, and EA wants to take that down a peg through games like its Battlefield series. EA’s Jens Uwe Intat told ButtonCombo in September that the company wants to take ATVI’s segment share down to between 70% and 60%.
Experts agree with EA’s assessment of Activision’s market position. As Jesse Divnich, an industry expert, told IndustryGamers, the “Call of Duty franchise is outperforming the category’s growth, and since release counts have been similar over the year, the data would conclude that Call of Duty is both growing the Shooter category while growing its share.”
And that category has been growing — although not as fast as social gaming. Since 2008, the number of shooter games sold has been growing at an 8.5% annual rate, from 68 million in 2008 to 80 million in 2010. That amounts to $5 billion in revenue — up from $3 billion in 2006 — a 13.6% annual rate, according to IndustryGamers.
But there is some bad news for Activision. In September, total U.S. game sales — including video game console hardware and games — fell 6% to $1.16 billion year-to-date, according to NPD Group. And this decline is due in part to Activision and EA’s slow response to social games like those made by Zynga, whose pending IPO could value it at $20 billion.
Prior to its report, analysts expected Activision to report a 75% drop in third-quarter EPS from 2010. ATVI was expected to earn a penny a share — down from four cents a share the year before. And revenue was expected to be down 25% to $558 million for the quarter compared to the 2010 third quarter.
After the market closed Tuesday, ATVI reported better-than-expected results. Its adjusted EPS of seven cents per share in reported earnings was a whopping six cents higher than the expected penny. And ATVI revenue exactly matched expectations of $558 million for the quarter.