5 Charts Showing the U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Pull Back

A similar weakness to 2000 and 2007 signals caution

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5 Charts Showing the U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Pull Back

5)  Lastly, the Media industry group, a leader for much of the Bull Market, has moved down to start the year. Madison Square Garden (MSG) is one of the weaker components, as evidenced by deteriorating relative strength (bottom panel of chart below) since last July.

Chart5  5 Charts Showing the U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Pull Back

Overall, this broad-based weakness in the Consumer Discretionary sector is troubling, especially when viewed in light of other risk factors that have been building in recent weeks: defensive leadership and bond strength. U.S. equities have proved their resiliency a number of times over the past year but I doubt they will ignore consumer weakness for long. At 70% of GDP, consumption expenditures are by far the most important segment of the U.S. economy. Until we see improvement here, the risk of a correction is elevated.

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

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