Are we having fun yet? If you are a fan of roller coasters, you have to love what is happening in the equity markets. Volatility is at an all-time high, and 1,000 point swings from peak to trough in one day are becoming commonplace.
Traders in such an environment are firmly in control of the action. Long-term investors are left to the sidelines watching the action mostly in dismay. Those buy and hold suckers have been clearly snookered. (See also: "A Trader’s Guide for the Rest of the Year.")
Are the waters now safe for those buy and hold investors to deploy new capital?
One very influential investor says yes, and yes in a big way. Today, the great Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, is out with an article in the New York Times stating that the time to buy is when blood is in the streets.
He goes further by stating that he is indeed buying stocks in American companies in his own personal account, and he thinks you should be doing the same. Previously, his personal account was invested in Treasury securities.
If prices continue to falter, it is entirely possible that this account will be 100% invested in domestic equities. His actions have a strong historical basis. He lists a number of times, including after the depression in 1932, when buying stocks in the middle of the storm made big dollars.
Those dollars were made in the long term and that is the point. Buffett admits that he has no idea where stocks are going in the short-term, and he rarely opines on the direction of the market.
Instead, he prefers to invest and let time do its magic. He makes a solid case, and any investor would be wise to listen.
As Buffett mentions, the United States went through a depression, two world wars, a dozen or so recessions, oil shocks, financial crisis and the resignation of a disgraced president. Through all of that the Dow moved from 66 to 11,497.
In many of these cases the biggest gains occurred during the scariest of times. History is inclined to repeat itself. Today, we are facing what many have said is the worst crisis since the Great Depression.
As such, the opportunities in the market today may very well be unprecedented. That doesn’t mean it will be a straight line higher, but I think today’s article by Buffett is very encouraging. (See also: "Is It Time to Buy?")
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He is dead on in my opinion. He mentions Wayne Gretsky who would always skate not to where the puck was, but where it was going to be. Buffett is suggesting you do the same.
Previously, I have been critical of those running to praise Buffett’s actions during this crisis. Specifically, I believed that his investments in the market had nothing to do with common stock investing, and that he was acting in great self-interest.
I was especially irked at those stating that Buffett’s moves were a vote of confidence. They were nothing of the sort. His investments were vulture opportunities that benefited him to the detriment of common stockholders.
Today’s news changes that argument completely. While I fully expect stocks to trade lower in the short-term, the time has come to commit to equities.
Don’t worry about trying to time the market. Doing so is impossible anyway. I recall the last recession when stocks bottomed in the fall of 2002.
At that time investors could have deployed capital over a six month period before the market took off in earnest. In between October of 2002 and March of 2003, stocks rallied and retested the lows.
Any buying during that time resulted in significant gains for investors. Today, I think the market will act in a very similar manner. As such long term investors can take time to deploy their capital.
The real question for investors is not when, but where to deploy that capital. Is there a road map to follow? Did Buffett give any indication as to what he is buying?
Of course he didn’t. That would be tipping his hand. He is being generous by telling us in advance that he is buying. We’ll find out what he was buying much later.
I have some ideas as to what he is buying, and his article does provide some clues. He is going to where there is blood in the street. Industries that have suffered the worst during this malaise then would provide the greatest opportunities. (See also: "Winners and Losers of the Bailout.")
I’m building my shopping list of stocks to buy for the long term. I’ll share some of my best ideas next week.
This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.