It is time to short the Obama health care plan, which will be shredded, gutted, downsized … maybe even killed. Whatever Congress decides on the issue, the focus of the health care industry will become cost control.

What stock is most likely to suffer?

The stock of the company that arguably sells the most expensive health care widget — Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).

ISRG is experiencing flattening growth and has a trailing P/E of 45. However, I am not recommending shorting the stock based on valuation (I think that’s a fatal approach). I am recommending shorting ISRG based on the tone and tenor of the health care debate.

The California-based company makes robotic systems to aide surgeons. They have great products, but they are large, incredibly complex, obscenely expensive and require massive amounts of training and support. Sure surgery is enhanced, but the company and its products are the poster child for runaway medical spending on incremental improvements on patient outcomes.

Simply put, now is not the time for hospitals to buy multimillion-dollar toys, and it is hard for them to get cash if they do decide they want to buy them.

Trading for almost $230, now is not the time to short the stock based on its technicals. But it has stalled a bit, and once it begins to roll over there is serious money to be made if you buy put options on the stock.

Put ISRG on your watch list as a way to play the unfolding (read: unraveling) of the Obama health care plan.

And if you’re looking for the stock that will benefit no matter what Congress decides on health care reform, check out this health care stock.

Let Michael Shulman help you make money on the short side of the stock market. Download a free copy of his new investing guide, Double Your Money — and Double it Again.