Tobacco Stocks Hang Tough

Advertisement

Few investors will shy away from companies whose business is robust and sustainable. You don’t want to put your money into a fad stock, after all. But what if the business was not only sustainable, but delivered a product some people absolutely crave on a daily basis – a product driving a business that is not only sustainable but extraordinarily resilient despite fierce regulatory forces and, in many regions, growing social stigma?

I’m talking about products that users literally become addicted to. I’m talking about cigarettes. I’m talking about Altria Group (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Lorillard (NYSE:LO), and Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI). And I think you should hold stocks like these forever, and by that I mean for at least the next 75 years.

Why?

Because no matter what measures have been taken to eradicate smoking, it continues to stalk consumers like the living dead. After 40 years of continual declines, the smoking rate during the past five years in the United States has clung stubbornly to 20%, according to a report released last September by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. How many times have cigarette taxes been raised? A lot! The cost of a pack of Marlboro cigarettes ranges from about $3.80 in Kentucky to $10 in New York, and is in the $5-to-$6 range in most other states and in Europe (but well under $2 in many Asian and African countries). It doesn’t seem to matter how many times smokers hear about cancer or how many lawsuits have been filed against smoking manufacturers. In the U.S., prohibitions on smoking in public places are ubiquitous. But the draw, as it were, is too powerful. Smoking has become so intrinsic to the lifestyles of many people, especially in other countries, that it will never go away.

So which company makes for the best investment?

Altria – which includes Philip Morris USA (maker of Marlboro cigarettes, among others), winemaking and distribution, and variety of leasing and finance operations – generated $16.89 billion in revenue in 2010, down only slightly from $16.82 billion in 2009, and up 5.8% from $15.95 billion in 2008. Annual net income since 2008 has ranged from $3.2 billion to $4.93 billion. Perhaps more important, the company has been enjoying healthy free cash flow: $3.13 billion in 2008, $3.76 billion in 2009, and $3.33 billion in 2010. Analysts project 6.3% annualized earnings growth over the next five years. Add to this the 5.8% dividend, and you have a stock capable of both capital gains and fixed income. It’s also reliable fixed income. The company won’t cut that dividend anytime soon.

Philip Morris International, which services foreign markets exclusively, is better situated.  Revenue, which was $22.81 billion in 2007, came in at $27.20 billion in 2010, while profits ranged from $6.03 billion to $7.25 billion during that period, and $7 billion to $8.5 billion in free cash flow. Analysts see Philip Morris International’s growth at double that of Altria over the next five years. The dividend, at 3.6%, doesn’t match Altria’s, but the prospect for greater capital gains exists here. This company also delivers net margins of almost 25%.

Reynolds American splits the difference. It’s comparatively small – $9.02 billion in 2007 revenue and $8.55 billion in 2010, with little fluctuation in between. Profits ranged from $962 million to $1.11 billion during that period, free cash flow has averaged $369.3 million since 2008, and the projected growth rate is 8%.  On the other hand, it carries a hefty 6.0% dividend. Arguably, there is more upside here in that there is more market share to capture. Reynolds’ net margin of 15%, however, is the smallest among the companies.

Lorillard, meanwhile, generates even less revenue than Reynolds American, but generates the same bottom line and free cash flow – and margins of 24%.

Ethical issues aside, none of these are bad choices, but if I had to pick one I’d go with Philip Morris International.  The company is just so darn big, serves so many different countries, has a solid balance sheet, delivers a great dividend that will turbocharge your returns if you reinvest it, and makes tons of money.

Tobacco stocks – smoke ’em if you got ’em, and if you don’t, start the habit.

Lawrence Meyers uses the fundamentals of reason when analyzing stocks, as taught to him by his extraordinary math teacher. He has no position in any stocks mentioned.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/08/altria-philip-morris-international-lorillard-reynolds-american-tobacco-stocks/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC