Selloff Puts All Eyes on the Fed

Looking for a dovish Fed … the crypto sector suffers another drawdown … will gold ever register a pulse?

 

Tomorrow, all eyes are on the Fed.

It’s the most anticipated Fed announcement in recent memory. Investors are expecting hints about the timing and scope of a Fed bond-purchase tapering.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the November meeting is when we’ll get a formal announcement on the Fed reducing its monthly purchases of $80B of Treasurys and $40B mortgage-backed securities.

Of the 52 economists surveyed, two-thirds expect November. More than half of them believe the taper will begin in December.

But as we noted in yesterday’s Digest, Louis Navellier believes we’ll get more information tomorrow, which will calm markets.

From Louis’ Platinum Growth Club Flash Alert yesterday:

I am expecting a dovish statement.

I am expecting the Fed will clarify that they will begin tapering.

But it’s probably just going to be a mini-taper, not a big one. And so, I think it will be interpreted as dovish, and the market will rally.

***Louis isn’t the only one expecting a dovish Fed

Our hypergrowth expert, Luke Lango, also expects the Fed will tell the market what it wants to hear, resulting in a late-week rebound.

Interestingly, Luke points toward yesterday’s volatility as a clear signal to Federal Reserve Chairman, Jay Powell.

From Luke’s latest update of Hypergrowth Investing:

The Fed is slated to meet today and tomorrow to discuss monetary policy. Many Fed members have voiced a hawkish tone ahead of that meeting, advocating for some tightening via a tapering of asset purchases.

Wall Street is braced for this – investors are largely “OK” with a gradual and smooth taper.

But Wall Street doesn’t want anything more, and they’re letting the Fed know by selling stocks ahead of the meeting, basically saying: “Hey, Fed, if you tighten more aggressively than you’ve signaled, the stock market’s going to collapse, and the whole world is going to blame you.”

It’s a warning shot.

And it’ll work.

Luke believes that today and tomorrow could be choppy in the markets. But tomorrow at 2 p.m. ET, Powell will take the stage. Luke anticipates he will announce a taper, while delivering it in an ultra-dovish tone – pleasing the markets.

That will lead to a market rebound to close out the week.

***If you follow the money-flows, U.S. investors are also expecting this “Wall-Street-friendly” Fed

From Seeking Alpha:

The market is seeing a “monster reallocation cash-to-stocks as tax redistribution threat recedes & Fed expected to remain Wall St-friendly (liquidity easiest since Jul’07),” Michael Hartnett, BofA chief investment strategist, wrote in the “Flow Show” note on Friday.

How big is this reallocation?

Last week, investors dumped cash in favor of stocks at the greatest pace of the entire year. The outflows from money market funds registered $43.5 billion, the biggest of 2021, according to Refinitiv Lipper.

It also marked the largest inflow into U.S. large-cap funds ever. It was $28.3 billion, to be exact. Growth funds saw nearly $7 billion, with small-caps getting $4.2 billion.

So, the results of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could be a market-mover. We’ll let you know how it goes here in the Digest.

***Stocks aren’t the only asset class in the red recently – the crypto sector has been suffering a sell-off

It feels like bitcoin and the crypto sector had finally begun turning the corner after the 50%+ drop from the spring. That was, until a flash crash from two weeks ago ushered in more weakness.

Yesterday’s multi-asset class selloff hit crypto as well.

From Forbes:

Cryptocurrency prices plunged Monday morning during a widespread market sell-off sparked by concerns of a potentially catastrophic debt default in China, pushing many of the world’s largest digital currencies to their lowest levels in more than a month.

The value of the world’s cryptocurrencies plunged to a low of less than $1.9 trillion by 8:45 a.m. EDT on Monday, nearly 11% less than 24 hours prior and reflecting a loss of more than $250 billion, according to crypto-data website CoinMarketCap.

Pullbacks like this are never fun to sit through, but they’re not unusual. So, it’s critical to avoid interpreting “temporary weakness” as a sign of “impending doom.” This is just standard crypto volatility.

Luke, who is also our crypto specialist, echoed this same point in his Saturday update of Ultimate Crypto. And this was before yesterday’s sector weakness.

After highlighting bullish adoption news about several holdings in the Ultimate Crypto portfolio, Luke wrote:

That’s not to say we won’t get a big sell-off here soon. We may.

That’s what cryptos do – from time to time, they plunge.

But it is to say that consumer adoption is progressing at breakneck speed, and consumer adoption will ultimately determine the long-term price trajectory of cryptos.

That’s why we’re more bullish than ever, and why we will be huge buyers on any future plunges in cryptos.

By the way, if you missed it, last week, Luke sat down with fellow crypto expert, Charlie Shrem, to discuss the huge opportunities in the crypto sector.

In short, they believe a new massive crypto bull market is forming, and certain cryptos are likely to go parabolic. Weakness like we’re seeing right now is offering investors greatly-discounted entry prices to top-tier cryptos.

If you’ve been looking for a time to begin a crypto portfolio, this is a good opportunity. To watch the free replay of Luke and Charlie’s event, just click here.

***Meanwhile, even with stocks and cryptos down and anxieties up, gold still can’t catch a bid

There was a time when steep selloffs in stocks and other asset classes would frighten investors, resulting in huge inflows into the “chaos hedge” of gold.

Though that time may return, it’s not here right now.

Yesterday, as all three major stock indexes dropped more than 2%, gold yawned, barely inching higher (and silver actually lost 0.6%).

Our macro specialist and the editor of Investment Report, Eric Fry, put a poetic spin on this…

The yellow metal is barely registering a pulse at the moment. Most of the wax figures inside Madame Tussauds museum seem more vibrant and lifelike.

But the thing about gold is it tends to come back from the grave at the exact moment that dejected investors finally leave it for dead.

Back to Eric:

After gold’s decade-long dormancy from 1991 to 2001, for example, it suddenly sprung to life and soared 500% over the ensuing decade.

More recently, the gold price drifted 40% lower during the seven-year span from 2011 to 2018. But then it revived once again and rallied as much as 70% from its 2018 low.

That rally was probably the first phase of what will become a much bigger move. Now that the gold price has spent more than a year going nowhere, it has gained plenty of rest for its next major move higher.

Frankly, the pessimism has grown so intense that gold is beginning to resemble a dream-trade for a contrarian investor.

Back to Eric to put some numbers on this:

Most folks want little to do with gold at the moment.

On a net basis, investors have withdrawn more than $15 billion from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) during the last 12 months. That’s the most rapid and sizable retreat from this gold fund since 2013.

Chart of money flowing into and out of the gold ETF, GLD

To summarize today’s approximate investor attitudes, they like stocks, adore cryptos, and feel sorry for gold and silver.

“Both metals are suffering from a complete lack of investor interest,” griped Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, during Thursday’s abrupt selloff.

But remember, there are two macro factors in gold’s corner – inflation and soaring government debt.

Eric notes that the 12-month federal deficit stands at $2.8 trillion…which is a whopping 12.5% of U.S. GDP. Meanwhile, the six-month average U.S. inflation rate is hitting levels not seen in 30 years.

Back to Eric:

Historically, great, big governments deficits, coupled with great, big inflation readings, trigger great, big gold rallies.

Perhaps this time is different. But there’s a reason why many seasoned investors say that “This time is different” is the most expensive phrase in finance.

Because it is…

We’ll keep checking for a pulse here in the Digest and will let you know.

See you back here tomorrow for the post-mortem on the Fed announcement.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg


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