What the NFL Teaches About Managing Portfolio Risk

How Investors Can Start Trading with Data and Not Gut Feelings

I remember being nine years old, sitting cross-legged on the floor, watching the Dallas Cowboys battle the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl X.

Growing up in Texas, I was a huge Dallas Cowboys fan. I had shirts, hats, and bedsheets that were plastered with the team’s name and logo.

At a key point in the game, the Cowboys had the ball on fourth down and short. I pleaded with the television (We may have still only had a black-and-white TV), “Go for it! Go for it!”

But they didn’t. They punted. That’s what every team did back then.

The announcers agreed saying that it was too risky. Looking back, those choices about risk were driven by tradition, fear of failure, and fear of criticism. Coaches made decisions with their guts, not with data.

Today, everything is different. With advanced analytics, teams can analyze years of game data to more accurately predict when the odds favor going for it on fourth down.

The networks broadcasting the games now even show a graphic that will say something such as “Fourth and 4 or less: Go.”

It’s a much smarter way to play.

In the most recent Super Bowl, both teams tried to convert a fourth down – neither attempt was successful. But in the previous year, both teams tried to convert a fourth down and both attempts were successful.

Now, nobody’s perfect. Sometimes the play doesn’t work. But these days, the decisions are made based on the numbers, and that promises better decisions—more points and, ultimately, more wins.

What if you could make your trading decisions with that same degree of confidence? Imagine if you could manage your portfolio with the same level of statistical rigor as an NFL coach.

That’s where a new tool from our corporate partners at TradeSmith can help.

From Gut Decisions to Data-driven Results

This new, AI-based trading tool – TradeSmithGPT – crunches numbers, cutting through emotion, tradition, and guesswork. It scans the market for high-probability trades, helping you spot the best opportunities to act with confidence. Not every trade wins—but like that fourth-down call, the odds are finally on your side.

In the past, farmers and sailors predicted weather by watching clouds, reading barometers, or listening to old proverbs like “red sky at morning, sailors take warning.”

Now, meteorologists have access to a ton of data that includes satellite imagery, radar data, and machine learning models to predict storms with incredible accuracy. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better.

Doctors used to rely on experience and instinct to treat patients. If you had a cough, or a fever or a rash, the doctor recalled past similar situations to make a diagnosis and a decision on treatment.

Now, doctors can use advanced diagnostic tools and algorithms to analyze thousands of variables, such as genetics, biomarkers, and imaging data. With all the tools to analyze this data, doctors can make treatment recommendations with a higher rate of success.

Investors too often still trade based on news cycles, or whatever their neighbor tells them is “hot” in the market. It’s the equivalent of looking at clouds to develop a weather forecast. Maybe you’re right, but you’re just as likely wrong.

As computers grow more powerful and artificial intelligence continues to evolve, you can improve your trading by tapping into cutting-edge tech. Algorithmic portfolio management, predictive analytics, and advanced screeners are just some of the tools available now.

These new tools aren’t meant to replace human decision-making, but to improve it. These tools help investors spot opportunities as they emerge, anticipate risks before they hit, and act with greater confidence and precision.

Keith Kaplan, the CEO of TradeSmith, has developed some of the most advanced software tools available to self-directed investors. His team has spent more than $20 million and thousands of man hours developing sophisticated financial innovations specifically for retail investors.

Keith believes nothing he has worked on comes close to this new AI-powered trading tool that he debuted this week – TradeSmithGPT. Here is how he describes it:

You can use it to pinpoint a stock’s “profit window” – the ideal timeframe to trade a stock on any given day.

And the results are stunning…

In back-tests, it’s identified profit windows in which stocks surged so fast, it was like compressing four, eight, even nine, years of market gains into just a few weeks.

The Analytics Advantage in Your Portfolio

Think of it just like the network analytics on your TV screen that read: “Fourth and 3 or less: Go”, or the weather forecaster who says, “There’s an 80% chance of rain tomorrow.”

No one has a crystal ball that can guarantee success every time. But when you harness the power of statistical probability, the odds are on your side.

It’s far easier to see this tool in action than describe it. That’s why Keith provided a live demonstration this past Wednesday. You can catch a free replay for a limited time by clicking here.

Here’s how Keith suggests we think of it:

It’s like working alongside a veteran trader with a photographic memory and genius-level pattern recognition skills who’s watched every market pattern unfold for seven years…

Someone who can tell you: “I’ve seen this setup 1,000 times before. Here’s what usually happens next.”

Except our system can process vastly more data than any human trader ever could.

To give you a sense for just how powerful and profitable this tool can be, in backtests, the system flagged gains of…