As the crisis in housing and financials deepens with seemingly no end in sight, it’s not surprising that other sectors of the market with a direct correlation to those industries get taken down too. Consumer durables is one such sector.
Consumer durables are basically anything a consumer buys that has an expected life of three or more years. The category is broad in scope, ranging from the obvious things such as autos, boats, furniture and refrigerators to less obvious ones such as replacement tires, golf clubs, kitchen appliances and DVD players. Big ticket items they’re sometimes called, though one doesn’t usually need to take out a loan or use a credit card to buy a coffee grinder. Obviously the collapse in housing has impacted consumers’ demand for big ticket items.
Banks have largely curtailed the use of home equity loans, and that alone, has hurt demand for some of the pricier consumer durables such as autos, boats and furniture. Four-dollar a gallon gas, rising credit card delinquencies, higher prices for food and the threat of being laid off have crimped demand for others. It’s not too difficult to make do with the old delaying the purchase of the new. If you don’t have the money you just don’t buy (see, “Six Stock Tips for Turbulent Times“).
Fortunately nothing lasts forever, and this too shall pass. For example, look at Nike (NKE). The leader in athletic shoe apparel seems to be bucking this dreary consumer trend. It’s stock price is actually up today. I wrote about Nike back in June, see “Nike (NKE): A Proven Winner“). Yes, this financial crisis will end eventually (maybe with the passage of the proposed bail out). Once this mess gets behind us, and banks start lending again, there will be plenty of pent up demand for many consumer durables. Remember, most people only feel poor right now, most people are working and earning a wage and most people are current on their mortgages.
Rational Investors seek to exploit weaknesses in the market and buy shares of quality companies when they are temporarily down (see, “Fire Sale for Financials on Wall Street“). Long-term investors are often richly rewarded by purchasing shares when most are selling. Here’s a look at some companies that make durable goods which have the potential to double over the next two to three years:
Brunswick Corp. (BC) is one such company an investor would buy today for rewards further down the road. It’s out of favor because nobody actually needs their products as they’re in most cases expensive and it’s hard for consumers to justify spending money on boats, marine engines, fitness equipment and billiards tables. These things are wants, and as soon as consumers feel better about the economy they’ll be queuing up to buy again (see also, “Brunswick Corp (BC): Don’t Miss the Boat!“).
BC continues to introduce … </> innovative, new products and implement initiatives to improve quality and productivity. It has also cut jobs commensurate with the decline in sales. Brunswick has remained profitable excluding restructuring charges and continues to generate positive free cash flow providing it with financial flexibility and liquidity. The shares trade for just 21 percent of sales, 61 percent of book value and yield 4.3 percent.
Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) manufactures and markets home appliances worldwide – products such as refrigerators, dishwashers, ovens, microwaves, washers & dryers and small kitchen appliances. With its acquisition of rival Maytag, the company is the 800 lb. gorilla of the industry. In addition to the downturn in housing which has hurt its U.S. business, Whirlpool is also being impacted by rising material and oil-related costs. Europe has been strong but it too is expected to slow as it grapples with its own housing downturn. Growth in emerging markets such as Latin American and Asia is strong as populations there are exposed to these modern conveniences, many for the first time (see also, “How to Profit in Emerging Markets“).
For fiscal 2008 WHR expects to earn between $7.00 and $7.50 per share and generate between $500 million and $550 million in free cash flow. The shares trade for just 10 times fiscal ’09 estimates.
Cooper Tire and Rubber Co. (CTB) specializes in the design, manufacture, marketing and sales of passenger car, light truck, medium truck and motorcycle and racing tires.
Cooper usually does well in times of financial hardship as consumers put off buying that new car or truck and opt for the less expensive option of new tires so they can squeeze a few more years out of their old car. But this time around consumers are delaying even new tire purchases, and rising raw material costs have compounded by eating away at margins.
But CTB has pushed through price increases and increased investments in “low cost country” manufacturing. The shares trade for just 19 percent of sales and 75 percent of book value and yield 4.4 percent.
The Stanley Works (SWK) is a worldwide manufacturer and marketer of tools, hardware and specialty hardware products for home improvement, consumer, industrial and professional use. Many of Stanley’s products are not the “big ticket” variety but items in which consumers don’t flinch when they look at the price tag. U.S. market conditions have been challenging but Europe saw 7 percent organic growth in the consumer do-it-yourself segment in the last quarter. When the domestic segment returns to normal these shares should soar. They trade for just 78 percent of sales and just ten times fiscal ’09 earnings estimates while yielding close to 3 percent.
This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.