While the U.S. markets have gone into rally mode the past month and a half, they are not even close to catching up with what the rest of the world has been doing. Here’s a quick look at news affecting overseas markets that I care about the most.
Thailand. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that South Asia countries like Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines are taking business away from China because their average worker’s wages are considerably lower. Thai government officials are now talking about raising the minimum wage, but as you can see in the chart below, the average monthly wage in Thailand is $245.50 per month, vs. $412.50 in China.
Recall that many companies have been moving operations to these countries not just for lower wages, though, but because their geographic proximity to the Persian Gulf and other Asian countries is superior to China. Ford said it would build a new $450 million car factory in Thailand, its first wholly owned plant in the country, earlier this year.
And the managing director the Kasikom Research Center, a unit of large Thai bank, said: “As China faces labor shortages and higher wages, Thailand will be among Asia’s most attractive destinations for new investments by automakers. Thailand has the most developed infrastructure for the auto industry in the region.” He means that the ports are deep and railroads and truck roads into the industrial base are adequate.
Turkey. The Jerusalem Post last week published an article that was a bit critical of the Ankara government and warned it is not as secular as may appear. Consider the source, of course, but I thought it made some good points that I have seen elsewhere. It pointed out that the recent constitutional referendum on the surface allow Turkey to present its institutions as being those of an open and democratic nation while at the same time allowing its Islamic underpinnings to firm up, which is true. If Turkey were to join the European Union, it would be the political unit’s second largest country in population (73.9 million, vs. 82 million in Germany; 61.4 million in the UK and 62 million in France), and of course its largest Muslim nation. Germany and France are said to be cool to the idea of Turkey joining the EU, which is why its candidacy has dragged out for five years already.
Turkey. Over the weekend, former U.S. President Bill Clinton was in Istanbul, where he gave a speech of appreciation of Turkey’s geopolitical potential and its potential role in aiding global understanding. According to local press reports, Clinton rejected claims that Turkey’s axis was drifting away from secularism and said the country remains a firm anchor and gateway between the Western and Eastern worlds. ”Turkey is on its independent course of building bridges,” he said in a lecture at Istanbul Bilgi University. ”Turkey has shown respect for religion without being paralyzed by it,” Clinton said. He added: ”Everyone should read the Quran and understand the circumstances in which it was written.”
India. Mercedes Benz India announced last week that it is planning to launch a credit operation in that country to support its growing sales of Daimler commercial vehicle and passenger car brands. The new unit would focus on leasing, dealership finance and insurance. Mumbai is one of the hottest real estate markets in the world now that the Bombay Stock Market is within a whisker of regaining its all-time high, as shown above (U.S. and German markets are the red and purple lines in the chart).
Over the weekend, India’s ambassador to China implored Beijing to open its markets more to his country’s technology and pharmaceutical manufacturers. “Our bilateral trade is expected to cross $60 billion in 2010, making China once again India’s largest trade partner. India, however, is only China’s fourteenth largest trade partner,” said S. Jaishankar while addressing an India-China business seminar.
Also, President Obama will be making his first visit to India on November 8, and a flurry of business deals are being finalized beforehand. The Indo-Asian News Service reported over the weekend that business and government officials are working on a $4.4 billion deal for the Indian Air Force to buy ten C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft (shown below) — a deal that would create 30,000 U.S. jobs. The deal was cited as an example of agreements that Obama can make to highlight a partnership with India where businesses create new wealth with job opportunities for the peoples of both countries.
The news service also highlighted deals in the works with a San Diego-based naval architecture firm, two biotechs, and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), the wireless giant, which has partnered with two Indian-based telecommunication firms to provide exceptional mobile broadband coverage for rural parts of the country. ”No longer are US-India business ties a one way street,” an American trade official said, arguing that Indian firms are investing almost as much in the US as their American counterparts are in India. He cited Mahindra Group’s tractor units in Texas, Tennessee, and California and Reliance Industries’ plans to explore for and develop shale gas in the US.
India’s $1.2-trillion economy is set to grow 8.5% in the year to March 2011, according to sources cited by the Economic Times newspaper. The best rains in three years and booming stock markets have boosted demand for everything from tractors to million-dollar apartments in Mumbai, say fund managers, who expect nearly $2 billion of overseas funds to come in each month into Indian equities…. I guess we are not alone — but we were fairly early.
To see more insights like these, check out my daily investment advisories Traders Advantage and Strategic Advantage.
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