Markman: Re-emerging Markets

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I’ve been impressed with the action in the emerging markets of late, as they have quite stopped going down and show signs of nesting at support. We know that not every emerging market is alike, as the fund representing each country or region responds to different stimuli.

The ones that look the most interesting at this time are two of our old favorites, iShares Chile (NYSE:ECH) and Market Vectors Indonesia (NYSE:IDX), as they have both come down a lot and appear ready to rebound. IDX is back up more than 2% this week after a selloff or more than three months.

Goldman Sachs held a major conference for Asian clients in a Hong Kong hotel last week, at which emerging market stocks were obviously a big topic. A source told me the bank discovered that most of its clients remained very bullish on the emerging markets and that the decline in the past three months has stemmed much more from a reluctance to chase stocks at previously high levels than any ardent desire to sell.

My source said Goldman analysts and conference participants came away with a sense that none of the reasons given for the recent EM decline — inflation, interest rate hikes, rising crude oil prices, Mideast energy supply fears and corruption — would not act as a deterrent to fund managers who still see developing countries as the best growth opportunities in the world.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goldman analysts put out a research note along these lines soon, and encourage their contacts in the media to write that story. Combining the valuation levels with positive chart patterns and the potential for a turnaround in sentiment, this looks like a good time to take advantage of low prices — especially since price congestion lately has created a decent base.

The IDX ETF would be good ways to play a rebound, should it materialize.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/03/markman-re-emerging-markets/.

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