3 Stocks Doubling the Dow & 3 More in a Death Spiral

A lot of folks don’t put a lot of credence in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It’s an antiquated group of 30 blue chips that reads less like a list of stocks to watch and more like a list of stocks past their prime.

There’s General Electric (NYSE: GE), which first joined the index in 1896 – and adjusted for splits is barely above where it traded back in 1996. Then there’s tech’s fading star Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and big pharma’s big flop Pfizer (NYSE: PFE). Both represent stocks that were good investments in the 1990s that should have been sold before the dot-com bubble burst – but hardly represent Wall Street’s best and brightest in 2011.

It’s no surprise that most investor malign this list of sleepy old mega-caps. An analysis of the 30 components year-to-date reveals that most aren’t putting up a lot of fireworks. But don’t let the components that are plodding stolidly along fool you. There are a handful of big winners and big losers that stick out.

And here they are (based on market close Tuesday, 5/10):

Third-Best Dow Stock: Pfizer

I know, I was just dogging Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) a moment ago for its lost decade. But in the short term, with a 19.5% gain so far in 2011, the company has proven itself. Some of the uptick makes sense, since generic drug competition and blockbuster drug expirations are hardly “new” developments in the pharmaceutical industry. Also the 2009 buyout of Wyeth provided a much-needed shot in the arm – and drove a 34% increase in 2010 revenue over the previous fiscal year. The plump 3.8% dividend is also a selling point in these uncertain times. Will Pfizer keep it up? Personally I doubt it – but I wouldn’t have banked on Dow-doubling run so far in 2011, so maybe the drugmaker has some more tricks up its sleeve in the short term.

Second-Best Dow Stock: Caterpillar

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) was the toast of the Dow in 2010, with a stunning 64% gain in the calendar year as machinery orders and industrial activity picked up again in the wake of the Great Recession. But if you think CAT has plateaued, think again – it has tacked on 20.5% gains since January 1, 2011. After revenue jumped 30% from 2009 to 2010, experts are estimating year-over-year growth of 25% to 30% again in fiscal 2011. The company has walloped earnings estimates four straight quarters by posting EPS by an average of 24%. That kind of performance isn’t uncommon for small caps, but for a blue chip like this to pleasantly surprise analysts regularly means that even the “smart money” isn’t giving CAT enough credit right now.

Best Dow Stock: Boeing

With a 22.5% gain so far in 2011, Boeing (NYSE: BA) is cruising at yet another 52-week high and its highest valuation in about three years. Its recent earnings report at the end of April showed the company is healthier than some though, with a 13% jump in profit and a big backlog of orders that now totals almost $330 billion. The stock was beaten down on bad press, from competition overseas to yet another round of delays for its 787 Dreamliner. But if earnings are any indication, these worries appear to have been overstated – and shares have come zooming back in 2011.

Third-Worst Dow Stock: Microsoft

Poor Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) – even the Skype buyout news didn’t move the needle on Tuesday. To think that a decade years ago the rage was anti-trust talk about Bill Gates and his Windows empire – and now little old Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is racking up more in annual revenue. While Windows is still dominant and Microsoft certainly isn’t going anywhere, the juxtaposition with Apple is telling. While MSFT repeatedly stumbled with its Windows Phone software, the iPhone became dominant. While Apple has been jumping into the corporate space, sluggish enterprise IT spending has held back legacy software like Windows and Office from gaining much ground. While Apple redefined the computer with its iPad, most people haven’t really noticed any Microsoft operating system since Windows XP. Aside from a brief pop in late 2007 as the market peaked, MSFT stock hasn’t touched $35 since the dot-com boom – and with a -8% slide in 2011, is now right back where it was in the summer of 2009. Meanwhile the Dow has added almost 50% in the last two years and is +10% year-to-date. So much for the evil empire of Microsoft.

Second-Worst Dow Stock: Bank of America

I am one of those “suckers” who bought Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) in December anticipating bluer skies for the financial sector and the American economy as a whole. (And in full disclosure, I still am long in the stock — here are my latest reasons why I think BAC stock is a buy.) Unfortunately, Wall Street doesn’t much care about any analysis from me or anyone else – because the common perception is that the books are so cooked that there’s no real way of knowing how bad Bank of America stock is. Wall Street hates uncertainty – and what’s worse, what little we know is that there are still billions of dollars worth of non-performing toxic mortgages on the books. The prevailing notion is that BofA is a zombie bank posing as a recovered company, and the Fed’s refusal of its recent dividend request only reinforces that notion. It’s a dead heat between BofA and Microsoft, with both -8% year-to-date in 2011.

Worst Dow Stock: Cisco

Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is behind some of the server and communications technology at the very heart of the Internet, but is one of those tech success stories that is now starting to gather dust. While it’s daunting to change vendors and Cisco is king with a 70% of the enterprise router business, the company also has gotten lazy and bloated. Cisco’s labyrinthine corporate structure reportedly boasted 59 “internal committees” before CEO John Chambers announced yet another restructuring in April. Smaller, hungrier companies like Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) and Acme Packet (NASDAQ: APKT) have successfully challenged Cisco on its own turf, and the lumbering tech giant has been slow to react. It’s no wonder shares are -12.1% in the hole this year despite significant gains for the broader Dow.

For the curious, here’s a complete list of the 30 Dow components since January 1 from worst to best returns.

BEST AND WORST DOW STOCKS
STOCK TICKER RETURN
Cisco CSCO -12.1%
Bank of America BAC -8.0%
Microsoft MSFT -8.0%
Hewlett Packard HPQ -1.2%
Merck MRK 2.0%
Procter & Gamble PG 2.2%
Coca-Cola KO 2.4%
Walmart WMT 3.0%
McDonald’s MCD 3.8%
Verizon VZ 5.0%
Home Depot HD 6.3%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 6.3%
JP Morgan Chase JPM 6.5%
AT&T T 7.9%
Kraft KFT 8.6%
Intel INTC 9.5%
3M MMM 10.9%
General Electric GE 11.0%
Dupont DD 12.0%
Alcoa AA 13.8%
Exxon XOM 14.0%
United Technologies UTX 14.0%
Chevron CVX 14.0%
Travelers TRV 14.6%
IBM IBM 16.0%
American Express AXP 16.9%
Walt Disney DIS 17.0%
Pfizer PFE 19.2%
Caterpillar CAT 20.5%
Boeing BA 22.5%

 

Jeff Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace.com. As of this writing, he held a long position in Bank of America stock. Follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook.

STOCK

TICKER

RETURN

Cisco

CSCO

-12.1%

Bank of America

BAC

-8.0%

Microsoft

MSFT

-8.0%

Hewlett Packard

HPQ

-1.2%

Merck

MRK

2.0%

Procter & Gamble

PG

2.2%

Coke

KO

2.4%

Walmart

WMT

3.0%

McDonald’s

MCD

3.8%

Verizon

VZ

5.0%

Home Depot

HD

6.3%

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

6.3%

JP Morgan Chase

JPM

6.5%

AT&T

I

7.9%

Kraft

KFT

8.6%

Intel

INTC

9.5%

3M

MMM

10.9%

General Electric

GE

11.0%

Dupont

DD

12.0%

Alcoa

AA

13.8%

Exxon

XOM

14.0%

United Technologies

UTX

14.0%

Chevron

CVX

14.0%

Travelers

TRV

14.6%

IBM

IBM

16.0%

American Express

AXP

16.9%

Walt Disney

DIS

17.0%

Pfizer

PFE

19.2%

Caterpillar

CAT

20.5%

Boeing

BA

22.5%


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/05/best-dow-stocks-ge-csco-pfe-cat-dd-ba/.

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