Technicians have a very broad bullish pattern called the “golden cross,” which occurs when the rising 50-day moving average (MA) of the underlying moves across the rising 200-day moving average. When it happens on the downside, some call it the “death cross.”

But does this technical pattern have any meaning as it applies to a statistic, like, say, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)? It’s a good question to ask right now, as you can see on the chart.

Well, Bespoke Premium took a look and found … well, not all that much.

If it’s bullish for the VIX, it’s then bearish for the market. And out one month from the VIX golden cross, they find modest S&P 500 (SPX) weakness. Out three months, however, the market actually outperforms after a golden VIX cross (up 2.08% on average) versus normal (up 1.49%), according to the Bespoke numbers. So not much there.

But here’s one for all of you “Greece is 2008 Bear Stearns Redux” types. As per Bespoke, the last golden cross took place on Sept. 17, 2008, after which the market imploded 18.66% over the next month, and 21.79% over the next three months.

I would suggest the broader analysis rings true, and the above was just an extreme outlier.

Frankly, the longer an MA in the VIX, the less meaningful. Yes the VIX mean reverts, but we always have to remember that it’s just a statistic. It does not have the same supply and demand characteristics as a stock. It doesn’t trade, it doesn’t “print,” it simply calculates.

Over time, it gravitates toward the high teens and low 20s, but as we know, it can sit for extended periods at levels much higher and lower. If one of those periods happens to have occurred in the last 200 trading days, then it will weigh on the 200-day MA, of course. But it has little relevance to the here and now.

If you want to look at moving averages in the VIX, stick with shorter ones. I like the 10% versus the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) rule best. It states that if the VIX is 10% above (or below) the 10-day SMA, then its overbought (or oversold). It then follows that the SPX is oversold (or overbought).

As I type, the VIX sits about 15% below the 10-day SMA, suggesting (by this one metric) that the rally may stall here.