Let’s start off by saying that we love John Deere (NYSE:DE) — we really do. The iconic green tractors are as much a part of Americana as anything. But we’re here to make money, not get nostalgic.

That’s why we’re recommending a put on DE ahead of its earnings report next Wednesday before the open. While we think DE eventually will break higher, the fact is that the shares have done poorly after recent earnings reports. And with the global economy suffering a setback and credit tight, the near-term outlook for big-ticket farm machinery isn’t promising.

Over the past four quarters, DE has beaten the consensus earnings estimate by an average of 13%. Yet the stock has retreated in the week following each report. Part of the problem may be that DE’s whisper number is consistently higher than the analyst estimate. The current quarter is no different, with the whisper four cents above the analyst number. That just makes DE’s ability to impress all that much tougher.

DE’s chart is different than most stocks in that it’s been declining for the past four months. In fact, the shares are down more than 30% from their all-time high on April 1. This plunge has taken most potential technical support out of play.

Another reason we’re wary of DE is that sentiment remains optimistic, despite the stock’s recent slide. Short interest is negligible and the put/call ratio is toward the low end of the annual range. However, this ratio is rising, a sign of unwinding optimism and added selling pressure. Analysts are also overly bullish, with 12 of 17 rating the stock a buy. That leaves the shares vulnerable to downgrades.

As we said, we expect DE to reclaim new-high territory down the road. But don’t look for this quarter’s earnings to get the rally started. Recent history, a flailing economy, and too much optimism are conspiring to keep DE’s share price depressed for now. Buy the Sept 70 put for around five bucks.

Have a great trading week.