Bond Bounce Is a Bearish Opportunity

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The money fleeing equities during the past three days appears to be finding its way into the safe harbors of U.S. Treasurys. The popular iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE:TLT) is up 3.5% since hammering out its lows on Tuesday morning.

While some might contend this marks the beginning of yet another sustained rise in bonds, I remain unconvinced. With the TLT breaking the pivotal 50-day moving average earlier in the month and potentially entering an intermediate downtrend, the current rise is thus far an oversold bounce, nothing more.


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Traders agreeing that the path of least resistance for TLT is likely sideways to down ought to be using the current rally as an opportunity to enter strategies like a bear call spread.

This bearish vertical spread consists of selling a lower-strike call while buying a higher-strike call in the same expiration month. Typically, somewhat shorter-dated options are used to exploit the higher rate of time decay. Traders also use out-of-the-money options to setup a high-probability trade that profits even if the stock moves sideways or slightly higher.

With TLT trading at $125, traders could sell the Oct 128 call and buy the 133 call for a net credit of 67 cents. The max reward is limited to the initial $67 received at trade inception and will be captured provided TLT remains below $128 by October expiration. The risk is capped at the distance between strikes (133-128 = 5) minus the net credit (5 – 0.67 = 4.33) and will be incurred if TLT rises above $133 by Oct expiration.

In the event TLT continues to rise, traders might consider closing the trade if we reach the short strike price ($128) to limit losses.

As of this writing, Tyler Craig did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2012/08/bond-bounce-is-a-bearish-opportunity/.

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