It’s Hammer Time for Bonds

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Not only did the bullish frenzy of the past week see a mad dash into the U.S. equities market, it also resulted in a notable retreat in the bond market.

Since peaking in late June at $132.22, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Fund (NYSE:TLT) has fallen 5.4% to $125. Along the way, TLT also breached the pivotal 50-day moving average for the first time in four months.


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While bulls likely are pointing to the downdraft in Treasury bonds as yet another piece of evidence supporting an improving backdrop for stocks, I think it’s a bit premature to declare the bond bull dead.

In the short term, the selloff in bonds might have gotten a bit ahead of itself and be due for a rebound. In addition to being a bit oversold, the TLT also is sitting at a significant support level and formed a bullish hammer candle in Thursday’s trading session.

Traders willing to bet the TLT won’t fall dramatically from current levels might consider selling an out-of-the-money bull put spread for September expiration.

For example, traders could enter a Sep 120-115 put spread by selling to open the 120 put and buying to open the 115 put for a net credit of 62 cents or better. The max reward is limited to 62 cents and will be captured as long as TLT remains north of $120 at September expiration. The max risk is limited to $4.38 ($5 – $0.62) and will be incurred if TLT sits beneath $115 at expiration.

Traders willing to make a more aggressive bet could modify the position to higher strikes (i.e. 121-116 or 122-117) to generate a higher net credit.

As of this writing, Tyler Craig did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2012/08/its-hammer-time-for-bonds-tlt-bull-put-spread/.

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