If you love your smartphone, you’re not alone. According to research firm Gartner, sales of smartphones surpassed the sales of feature phones for the first time ever in the second quarter.
Only 10 years ago Nokia was enjoying 40% annual growth, while the Nokia 1100 cell phone was everywhere. The company sold some 200 million of them. Last quarter, though, the company saw its mobile phone sales drop from 83 million last year to 61 million this year. That’s not a new trend either, as Nokia also lost its crown as the world’s biggest mobile phone seller to Samsung (SSNLF) last year, after 14 years at the top.
Of course, many U.S. consumers may well have forgotten that Nokia sells anything but smartphones. After all, the company has been pushing its Lumia line of Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Phone devices hard. That’s because there’s a big difference between feature phones and smartphones, and it’s not just the functionality. For the manufacturer, there can be a massive difference in profit margin.
Just consider this: Nokia just released a new feature phone for emerging markets — a followup to that best-selling 1100. And it comes with an unheard of (for that segment) 29% profit margin. But the Nokia 105 has two problems: At a $20 price tag, even if Nokia sells boatloads of these things (Gigaom’s Kevin C, Tofel thinks it could end up being hundreds of millions) and even with a 29% profit margin, we’re not talking big bucks here.
If Nokia repeats the success of the 1100 and moves 200 million 105s, that’s around $1.1 billion in profit. Plus, it’s going to be spread over many quarters and flies in the face of the stats that show feature phone sales worldwide beginning to wind down in favor of cheap smartphones.
That’s why, long-term, Nokia’s survival is going to be about smartphones.
After abandoning its own Symbian platform, Nokia tied its smartphone fortunes to the Windows Phone mobile platform. The first Lumias were released at the end of 2011, but it was the Windows Phone 8 launch last fall that saw the Lumia line begin to gain traction. The result was Windows Phone pushing a struggling BlackBerry (BBRY) and its new BB10 out of third place worldwide.
With a 3.3% worldwide market share, the Windows Phone now seems to be cementing its spot as the alternative to Apple’s iOS and Google’s (GOOG) Android. Nokia — as Microsoft’s primary Windows Phone hardware partner,with an estimated 80% of those Windows Phone devices — stands to benefit from the platform’s success.
There are a number of Lumia smartphones now on the market, the latest being the 1020 with its monster 41 MP camera. The flagship Windows 8 Lumia phones have been bringing Nokia a profit margin somewhere in the 50% range, and sales of the devices hit 7.4 million in Q2, up 32% over the previous quarter.
The question, though, is whether Windows Phone market share (and therefore Lumia sales) will plateau any time soon. Because with sales of all its other phones on the decline, Nokia needs those smartphone numbers to increase.